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Daily Economic Outlook: 8th June, 2015

  • Amidst signs that the recent acceleration in Euro area activity is continuing into Q2, today's focus will be on German industrial production for April. After a disappointing Q1 which saw average monthly growth of -0.2%, Lloyds Bank anticipates a rise of 0.5% m/m which would be the first increase since December. The bank's view partly reflects last week's stronger-than-expected April factory orders release for Germany, which indicated that orders rose by 1.4%m/m - the fastest pace since last December. This week also sees the release of April industrial data for France, Italy and the euro area.
  • Otherwise, it is a quiet day for data releases. After rising in February and March, to €19.5bn and €23.0bn respectively, the German trade surplus for April is expected to ease a little to €19.2bn, says Lloyds Bank. The Federal Reserve labour market conditions index for May is also published. This is based on a raft of labour market information including unemployment, wages and participation but tends to be overshadowed by the payrolls report which is normally published a few days prior. However, it provides additional insights into underlying labour market trends which are important for FOMC thinking.  
  • With ECB President Draghi's seeming dismissal of the significance of the recent jump in bond market volatility still fresh in the mind, markets will pay close attention to today's speeches by ECB Council members Constancio and Nowotny for guidance on whether this position is more widely shared. They may also provide some new insights into the wider economic outlook. 

  • Market Data
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