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The ZAR has a high sensitivity to risks of a sharp slowdown in China as it is the biggest destination for the economy's exports after the Euro area.
The fall in precious and industrial metal prices as well as the risks of a China slowdown have resulted in worsened the terms of trade and weakening exports.
The CRB metal index is down by about 20% year-to-date. Any more devaluations of the CNY by the PBoC or signs of a China slowdown could weigh on commodity prices and thereby also add further weakening pressure on the commodity-dependent currencies, such as the ZAR, says Nordea Bank.
The underperformance of the economy this year with weak activity amid electricity shortages adds to the vulnerability of the currency. At the same time South Africa's large current account deficit could make it one of the Emerging Market currencies most exposed to the approaching Fed lift-off, which is adding to weakening risks in the near term.
