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China aggregate financing likely to show big gains

China is likely to releases aggregate financing figures sometime over the course of this week or perhaps into early the following week. We can expect the value of new yuan-denominated loans issued to consumers and businesses during the month of Jan to show powerful gain.

The surge is however likely to be temporary and could be only because the figures are not seasonally adjusted. Because China's state-directed loan quotas are reset at the beginning of the year, there is typically a rush to fill them early on. Accordingly, new yuan loan growth usually surges in the first month or few months of each year before trailing off later.

"Nevertheless, markets can be impacted by the trickle-through effects of such lending activity. With the People's Bank of China flooding the system with liquidity and loan quotas being freshly unleashed, a calmer period for China risks may well be on order," noted Scotiabank in a research note.

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