Chalco Stock Surges as Q1 2025 Profit Forecast Jumps Up to 58%

Aluminum Corporation of China, widely known as Chalco (HK:2600), saw its shares climb roughly 3% in both Hong Kong and Mainland markets on Thursday, bucking broader market weakness in the Hang Seng and CSI 300 indexes. The rally came after the company released an upbeat first-quarter earnings forecast, signaling strong momentum for one of the world's largest aluminum producers.

Chalco projected net profit attributable to shareholders of between 5.30 billion and 5.59 billion yuan (approximately $730 million to $820 million USD) for the three months ending March 31, 2025. That figure represents a year-over-year increase of 50% to 58%, comfortably surpassing Morgan Stanley's consensus estimate of 5.27 billion yuan and reinforcing investor confidence in the company's near-term outlook.

The impressive earnings growth was primarily fueled by elevated aluminum prices during the quarter. A combination of Chinese production restrictions and U.S. import tariffs created significant supply disruptions in global aluminum markets, pushing prices higher. Tensions in the Middle East added further upward pressure, as the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran affected regional shipping lanes and forced the shutdown or suspension of several aluminum production facilities in the area.

Despite growing concerns about demand softening in the months ahead, tighter global supply expectations continued to dominate market sentiment, keeping aluminum prices elevated and supporting Chalco's profitability.

Beyond metal pricing, Chalco also benefited from strategic improvements to its supply chain. The company made meaningful progress in securing its own bauxite supplies, reducing its dependence on external sources and giving it greater control over production costs throughout the quarter.

With strong pricing tailwinds, supply chain advantages, and a profit forecast well ahead of analyst expectations, Chalco appears well-positioned to maintain its status as a dominant force in the global aluminum industry heading into the rest of 2025.