Can Betting Markets Predict the 2020 US Election?

Ahead of any election, you will find your social media feeds and news outlets full of predictions from the pollsters. They will attempt to put together their expected results of the election based on information they have received from voters to give us a picture that explains what is going on.

But are we missing a trick here, and should we be looking elsewhere for election predictions? Betting markets are known for being right more often than not when it comes to sports, so should we trust those over pollsters when it comes to elections?

Those running the polls will tell you that they have tried and trusted methods of asking the right people to get the right result. Their sample may only be small, but they will stand by that based on who they ask and when.

They will also tell you that the betting markets are swung by bets placed by completely random people. You could get huge bets placed by Trump fans on him to win, because they are loyal and biased. A poll goes to places where there is no bias or favouritism.

However, there is one key ingredient to having a wager that makes people sit up and take note. When you place a bet, you are risking your own hard cash, you want to get it right and you will do all the research you possibly can to get there.

According to betting aggregate site newbettingsites.uk there are many new bookmakers out there who are willing to take a bet off you, and they will offer odds on any big political event such as an election.

Where Have the Bookmakers Won So Far?

Right before Joe Biden’s announcement about his running mate, polls showed that Susan Rice was favoured to take the position and she was moved into favouritism by the bookmakers. However, Kamala Harris was the favourite with the bookmakers for months before that, and ultimately was chosen by Biden.

Did the polls affect the betting markets? When we had no polls available, the betting markets were predicting right.

Over the past decade we have seen a real move forward in political betting, to the extent where it has to be taken seriously. Gone are the days of small wagers for fun and a trickle of bets being put through.

Millions will be traded on the upcoming US election and if that is the case and people are prepared to wager so much collectively between them, we must sit up and see what they are betting on.

Swings in the market will happen, especially in the early stages because bets will be at their lowest. However, in the days leading up to the election, the markets should firm up with the main money being placed on who people think will win.

Then is the time to take note, and with so much money at stake for people and bookmakers, maybe it is time that we started looking towards the betting markets for election predictions rather than the pollsters.

This article does not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or management of EconoTimes