Elevated inflation risks and a vulnerable ruble could force the CBR to stay on the sidelines at March 18th meet. The ruble has gained quite a bit since weakening to a record low of USD/RUB 85.9675 on January 21, and is currently trading at 70.7908 levels.
However, the currency is expected to resume depreciation in the near term on lower oil prices because of the global supply glut. The external debt repayments (with banks and companies due to repay over USD 70bn until the year-end) as well as the normalisation of the Fed policy also pose considerable risks.
There is also a small chance that the CBR might lower its key rate by up to 100bps in H2 2016 to support the weak economy. From a fundamental point of view, domestic demand could benefit from resumption in rate cuts.


BOJ Policymakers Warn Weak Yen Could Fuel Inflation Risks and Delay Rate Action
Bank of Korea Expected to Hold Interest Rates as Weak Won Limits Policy Easing
RBA Raises Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points as Inflation Pressures Persist
Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed
U.S. Urges Japan on Monetary Policy as Yen Volatility Raises Market Concerns
Bank of England Expected to Hold Interest Rates at 3.75% as Inflation Remains Elevated 



