Bank of Japan Faces Rate Uncertainty Amid Middle East Oil Shock 
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Global Central Banks Hold Rates Amid Iran War-Driven Energy Price Surge 
Australia Bans Card Payment Surcharges Starting October 2025 
Paraguay Central Bank Holds Interest Rate at 5.5% Amid Slowing Growth 
Bank of Japan Governor Signals Gradual Progress Toward 2% Inflation Target 
China Holds Benchmark Loan Prime Rate Steady for Tenth Consecutive Month 
Elevated inflation risks and a vulnerable ruble could force the CBR to stay on the sidelines at March 18th meet. The ruble has gained quite a bit since weakening to a record low of USD/RUB 85.9675 on January 21, and is currently trading at 70.7908 levels.
However, the currency is expected to resume depreciation in the near term on lower oil prices because of the global supply glut. The external debt repayments (with banks and companies due to repay over USD 70bn until the year-end) as well as the normalisation of the Fed policy also pose considerable risks.
There is also a small chance that the CBR might lower its key rate by up to 100bps in H2 2016 to support the weak economy. From a fundamental point of view, domestic demand could benefit from resumption in rate cuts.
