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The latest polls by various corporate bodies in the United Kingdom in run up to the June 23 Brexit referendum indicate that the percentage of citizens in favor of "leaving" the European Union (EU) has outnumbered those who want to "remain".
Only nine days are left before the people of United Kingdom take a historic decision on whether or not it should continue with its membership of the EU in a referendum on Jun 23. The onslaught of latest opinion poll findings has pushed the momentum in favor of 'Brexiteers'.
In fact, the pendulum swing has been sufficient to cause the betting odds, resulting in a drop in the implied probability of the UK remaining in the EU to 64-69 percent, from 70 percent last Friday compared to 78 percent in the early part of last week.
In particular, the ORB poll conducted for The Independent newspaper in the weekend, (weighted in accordance with those determined to vote) revealed a 10 percentage points lead in favor of a 'Brexit' has been the main catalyst behind the latest swinging of the overall momentum towards a 'Brexit' in the latest 6-poll average.
Even when the ORB poll findings are not adjusted to take account of those likely to vote, the result is 53 percent in favor of 'Brexit' compared to 47 percent for 'Bremain'.
The meeting of the Bank of England’s monetary policy meet this week, (though not expected to end in any monetary policy changes) could see the minutes reiterate that the cloud of uncertainty hovering over the future of the UK’s relationship with the EU is delaying investment and hiring decisions by businesses, and that a vote for 'Brexit' will likely trigger further GBP depreciation as well as adversely impact growth. Such expressed sentiments would only serve to further weigh on the currency in the interim.
