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There have been a lot of predictions on the future of Bitcoin (BTC). Trefis, a stock analytics company, joined the conversation and said that the cryptocurrency can reach the $15,000 mark by the end of the year.
However, the analytics firm recently changed its speculative number and lowered it to $12,500, according to Cointelegraph. The firm’s approach in predicting a cryptocurrency’s price revolves around the basic supply-and-demand criteria. For BTC, the demand is the number of users and transactions done in the cryptocurrency space, while the supply is the number of available Bitcoin in the digital market.
“Adjusting our forecast for transaction volumes… leads to a year-end price target of around $12,500 – down from our earlier estimate of $15,000,” Trefis said. The firm’s interactive Bitcoin price estimator monitors the number of unique BTC users and tracks the number of transactions for each month until the year ends.
Of course, even with this method, Trefis’s speculation remains just that, a speculation. There are still a lot of factors that could affect Bitcoin’s price like volatility, varying press releases and the regulations that are currently being drafted and put in place. As of this writing, Bitcoin has partially recovered its footing, with its value now at $7,698 compared to previous weeks, when it almost fell to $7,000.
Aside from Trefis's, there have been a slew of speculations coming from BTC enthusiasts and critics alike. Bullish claims like the one from distinguished investor Tim Draper estimate BTC’s value to reach $250,000 by 2022.
Others are speculating that if institutional investors throw their hats in the ring, Bitcoin’s value can reach $25,000. Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak even said that he considers Bitcoin as “pure digital gold.”
On the other side of the pond, crypto naysayer and prominent short-seller Jim Chanos remarked that Bitcoin is going to be useless if a global crisis occurs, adding that BTC is the last thing he’d want “should the grid go down.” Part of Chanos’s fame came from him correctly predicting the fall of energy giant Enron. Whether he’s right about Bitcoin’s future, however, is still anyone’s guess.
