BLS’ US October report likely to be significantly higher

BLS US report's prior-month adjustments may once again have a material impact on market participants' appraisals of next week's report. Over the past 15 years, the BLS has generally underestimated the change in nonfarm payrolls over the August-September span only to make upward revisions with the October release. 

Indeed, since 2000, the mean cumulative adjustment included with the preliminary October estimate has been 44,000 jobs and an even-heftier 77,000 positions over the past five years. 

"If the statistical model's in-sample estimates are reliable guides, the currently estimated 278,000 jobs added in August and September should be seen pushed significantly higher", says Societe Generale.