Australia's wheat production likely dropped by 15% in August

In its October forecasts, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) had unexpectedly revised its estimate for the Australian wheat crop up by 1 million tons to 27 million tons, an increase of 14% as compared with the 2014/15 season. 

Australia itself had released more cautious estimates at the time - and now generally predicts figures of around 23 million tons, which is somewhat less than in the previous year. 

Rainfall during the Australian winter had given rise to hopes that the El Niño phenomenon would have no significant negative impact on the Australian wheat crop, but now - it is spring in Australia - there is a severe lack of rain. It is estimated that this could have reduced the crop by 15% last month alone as compared with the volume that would have been harvested under normal conditions, notes Commerzbank.