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Australian bonds gain as RBA April meeting minutes hints at policy easing; 10-year yield down 2bps

Australian government bonds gained during Asian session Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s April meeting minutes hinted that the central bank is more inclined towards a rate cut rather than a rate hike.

The yield on Australia’s benchmark 10-year note, which moves inversely to its price, fell 2 basis points to 1.925 percent, the yield on the long-term 30-year bond also dipped 2 basis points to 2.547 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year traded 2-1/5 basis points lower at 1.503 percent by 03:50GMT.

“Our overall assessment of the Minutes from the RBA Board’s April meeting is that there has been a subtle dovish tilt. This comes from the fact that in discussing the prospect of a rate hike “members agreed that the likelihood of a scenario where the cash rate would need to be increased in the near term was low,” ANZ Bank noted.

“Yet following the discussion of the easing scenario no probability judgment was offered. This is in contrast to judgment in the March minutes that “the probabilities around these scenarios were more evenly balanced than they had been over the preceding year.” We might be reading too much into this but we think the small change does matter.”

The U.S. 10-year treasury yield ranged between 2.54 percent and 2.57 percent and closed 1 basis point lower. The 2-year yield between 2.39 percent to 2.41 percent and finished the session unchanged. The chances of a Fed rate cut by December, implied by Fed fund futures, remained at 50 percent.

Financial markets experienced a quiet night overnight with a lack of major data or news. Equities, currencies and bond yields mostly stuck to trading in narrow ranges as a result.

Meanwhile, the S&P/ASX 200 index traded tad 0.54 percent higher at 6,256.50 by 04:00GMT, while at 04:00GMT, the FxWirePro's Hourly AUD Strength Index remained neutral at -51.13 (a reading above +75 indicates a bullish trend, while that below -75 a bearish trend). For more details, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex

By Debarati Bir
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