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Market Roundup
• Japan au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Sep) 51.6, 52.5 previous
•Japan Manufacturing & Services PMI (Sep) 52.50, 53.50 previous
•Japan au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 54.1, 55.0 forecast, 54.9 previous
•Australia Unemployment Rate (Aug) 4.6%, 4.5% forecast, 4.5% previous
•Australia Full Employment Change (Aug) -6.3K, 14.9K previous
•Australia Employment Change (Aug) 39.5K, 21.5K forecast, -15.9K previous
•Australia Participation Rate (Aug) 67.1%, 66.9% forecast, 66.9% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•10:00 UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Sep) -42 forecast,-48 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 09:00 EU ECB's Lane Speaks
• 09:30 UK BoE MPC Member Dhingra Speaks
•12:00 US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Thursday as dollar eased slightly as investors paused after a sharp rally fuelled by expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes following strong economic data and last week's hawkish shift. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates last week and signalled the possibility of further tightening, while Chair Kevin Warsh emphasised the central bank's independence despite repeated calls from President Donald Trump for lower borrowing costs.The Fed's hawkish stance has reduced concerns that a Warsh-led central bank could adopt a softer approach to inflation, a prospect that could have weakened the dollar and weighed on U.S. assets. Markets now price nearly a 70% probability of another rate increase at the Fed's October meeting, up from around 50% a week earlier, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.Investors also remained focused on energy prices and geopolitical developments. Brent crude edged higher after a sharp overnight jump, as Iran and the United States remained far apart over efforts to end the conflict, keeping concerns about global oil supplies and inflation elevated. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1450(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1479(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1410(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1386(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged higher on Thursday as investors weighed persistent Middle East tensions and awaited closely watched talks between the United States and China.Market sentiment remained cautious as geopolitical uncertainty kept energy markets volatile. Iranian officials held discussions with U.S. envoys at the UN General Assembly, but both sides indicated that little progress had been made toward resolving the conflict.Attention is also focused on a summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, with investors looking for signs of progress on trade relations between the world's two largest economies.s. Oil prices moved higher as traders reassessed potential supply disruptions linked to the Middle East. Brent crude futures remained above the key $100-per-barrel level, reinforcing concerns over energy-driven inflation and its potential impact on global monetary policy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3347(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3397(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3227(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards1.3178(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar softened on Thursday after Australian labour-market data showed unemployment rising to its highest level since November 2021.Australian employment increased by 39.5K in August, comfortably exceeding the 20K market forecast. However, the unemployment rate climbed to 4.6% from expectations of 4.5%, suggesting that labour-market conditions are continuing to loosen despite solid job creation.Sentiment toward the Australian dollar was also pressured by geopolitical uncertainty, with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian saying Tehran and Washington remain far apart in their peace negotiations.The lack of progress has kept markets focused on the risk of prolonged conflict and its implications for global energy supplies.Attention is now turning to the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy meeting on Tuesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7134(Sep 18th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7164(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7080 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 07072(Lower BB)
USD /JPY : The U.S. dollar edged lower against the yen on Thursday as investors assessed Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama comments. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Thursday that the principles underpinning the coordinated Japan-US currency intervention in July remain in place, signalling Tokyo's readiness to take joint action again if needed."The principles since the previous joint intervention remain alive," Katayama told reporters, referring to the July 31 operation that Tokyo and Washington said was aimed at countering excessive volatility and disorderly market moves.The Japanese yen has weakened beyond 158 per dollar after the Bank of Japan's rate hike to a 31-year high on Friday fell short of reassuring investors that more aggressive tightening may be on the way. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.08(Sep 18th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.58(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.85(SMA20) a break below could take the pair towards 156.20 (61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
Japan's Nikkei share average rose on Thursday in a holiday-shortened trading week, extending its winning streak to four sessions.
China A50 was down by 1.58% , Hang Seng was down at 0.41%, Nikkei was up at 0.88%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged lower on Thursday as expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening weighed on the non-yielding metal.
Spot gold fell 0.3% to $4,274.79 per ounce, by 0702 GMT. US gold futures for December delivery fell 0.2% to $4,309.80.
Oil prices climbed more than 2% on Thursday as US-Iran diplomatic efforts showed little progress, while investors remained focused on uncertainty surrounding a potential US ban on diesel exports
Brent crude futures were up $2.32, or 2.25%, to $105.40 a barrel at 0803 GMT
