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Market Roundup
•Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions (Q3)7.6 ,2.5 forecast,-1.8 previous
•Japan PPI (YoY) (Aug)7.6%,7.4% forecast,7.7% previous
•Japan PPI (MoM) (Aug)-0.2%,0.0% forecast, 0.4% previous
• UK GDP (MoM) (Jul) 0.4%, 0.0% forecast, 0.3% previous
•UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Jul) 0.4%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•UK Trade Balance Non-EU (Jul) -9.66B, -10.45B previous
•UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jul) 0.9%, 0.2% forecast, -0.5% previous
•UK Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul) 0.2%, -0.2% forecast, -0.2% previous
•UK Trade Balance (Jul) -20.97B, -22.60B forecast, -23.01B previous
•UK Construction Output (MoM) (Jul) 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous
•UK GDP (YoY) (Jul) 1.6%, 1.2% forecast, 1.1% previous
•UK Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul) 0.6%, 0.2% forecast, -0.2% previous
•UK Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Jul) 2.6%, 2.0% forecast, 0.5% previous
•UK Construction Output (YoY) (Jul) -2.5%, -2.3% forecast, -2.3% previous
•UK Index of Services 0.6%, 0.5% forecast, 0.5% previous
•Swiss SECO Consumer Climate -33, -33 forecast, -33 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 11:00 UK NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (Aug)0.4% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped against the U.S. dollar on Friday ahead of key U.S. inflation data.The European Central Bank raised interest rates as expected and warned of higher inflation as energy prices soar in the wake of a prolonged Middle East conflict.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1641(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1677(Aug 28th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1612(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1585(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Friday after data showed UK growth beat expectations in July, continuing a string of relatively upbeat readings for the British economy.British gross domestic product grew 0.4% in July, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed, far outstripping economists' forecasts that the economy would flatline.Growth was driven by the services sector, which expanded 0.4% month-on-month, the figures showed.Britain's economy expanded 1% in the first half of the year, the fastest growth in the G7, although some economists think issues with seasonal adjustments could mean the figure is overstated. That means it could beat the Bank of England's forecast of 1.1% growth in 2026, although some analysts think the data could be revised lower. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3556(SMA 20 ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3655(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3535(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3483(Sep 2nd low).
AUD/USD: The Australian edged higher on Friday but gains were limited as investors awaited U.S. August CPI data.The Australian dollar came under pressure from rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike and sticky U.S. producer inflation.Markets are now pricing a 70% probability of a Fed rate hike on September 16, up from 60% on Thursday.Surging global bond yields are weighing on the Australian dollar, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield up 12 basis points and nearing 5%.U.S. crude prices settled 6.7% higher as escalating Middle East tensions worsened risk sentiment.U.S. August CPI data due Friday will be closely watched for clues on the Fed’s policy outlook, with a hotter-than-expected reading likely to weigh further on the Australian dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7244(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7258(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7161 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 07121(Sep 2nd low)
USD /JPY :The U.S. dollar slipped lower on Friday as Japanese yen firmed after data showed wholesale inflation rose in August.Japan’s producer price index rose 7.6% year-on-year in August, beating the median market forecast of a 7.4% increase, BOJ data showed. The gain followed a revised 7.7% rise in July.The data comes amid increasingly hawkish communication from the Bank of Japan, pushing markets to almost fully price a 25-basis-point rate hike to 1.25% at next week’s meeting.BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has said the central bank is closely monitoring wholesale inflation for signs of how much of the higher costs firms can pass on to households.The BOJ will next announce its policy decision on September 17-18, with markets nearly fully pricing a rate hike to 1.25% from 1%, following its increase in June.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.04(38.2%), an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.79(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.95(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 152.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks came under heavy pressure on Friday as higher oil prices and rising bond yields drove a broad risk-off move, offsetting resilience in parts of the artificial-intelligence sector.
China A50 was down by 0.63% , South Korea’s KOSPI was down at 1.76%, Nikkei was down at 1.87%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose slightly on Friday but remained set for a third straight weekly fall, pressured by growing expectations of a Fed rate hike as traders awaited key U.S. inflation data.
Spot gold was down nearly 2% for the week so far and up 0.8% for the day at $4,351.97 per ounce by 0639 GMT.
Oil prices slipped on Friday but remained on track to end the week above $100 a barrel for the first time since mid-May and U.S. diesel prices hit a record high as attacks along key Middle East shipping routes stoked prolonged supply disruption fears.
Brent crude futures fell $1.65, or 1.53%, to $105.98 a barrel by 0758 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.36, or 1.33%, to $101.12 a barrel.
