Market Roundup
• Japan au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (Jun): 54.9, 54.5 forecast, 54.5 previous
•Australia Judo Bank Services PMI (Jun): 49.9, 48.7 previous
•Australia Manufacturing & Services PMI (Jun): 49.80, 48.70 previous
•Japan au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Jun): 51.8, 50.0 previous
•Japan Manufacturing & Services PMI (Jun): 52.50, 51.10 previous
•Japan au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (Jun): 54.9, 54.5 forecast, 54.5 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 08:00 EU HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Jun): 48.6 forecast, 47.7 previous
• 08:00 EU HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jun): 51.6 forecast, 51.6 previous
• 08:00 EU HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Jun): 49.1 forecast, 48.5 previous
• 09:30 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Jun): 50.1 forecast, 49.3 previous
• 09:30 UK S&P Global Composite PMI (Jun): 50.6 forecast, 49.7 previous
• 09:30 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun): 53.5forecast, 53.9 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Tuesday as euro was weighed down by dovish comments from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde.Lagarde said the eurozone’s inflation shock is significant but not yet strong enough to trigger persistent second-round effects or push longer-term inflation expectations away from the ECB’s 2% target. She noted that the economy is currently in a “middle scenario” of a moderate, manageable overshoot requiring only measured policy adjustments.The ECB recently raised interest rates on June 11 after inflation moved above 3%, and markets are now assessing whether further tightening will be needed to contain price pressures and keep inflation expectations anchored. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1487(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1577(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1411(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1398(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped on Tuesday as investors assessed political uncertainty in following UK PM Starmer’s resignation. Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, who recently won parliamentary elections, stands as the top candidate for prime minister, although investors say a change in leadership is unlikely to change conditions a lot.Former health minister Wes Streeting is also in the leadership race, but one senior figure in the party said they believed Streeting could do a deal with Burnham, giving him a senior role if he stayed out of the contest. Labour leader Keir Starmer is the latest in a series of UK prime ministers to resign or be ousted by their own party over the past turbulent decade. His departure adds to a period of notable political instability that has seen frequent leadership changes since 2016. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3326(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3373(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3163(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3135(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar eased on Tuesday as downside bias continued to build as sellers regained control.The pair remains pressured by rising Fed rate hike expectations alongside growing uncertainty over Australia’s domestic growth outlook.Attention now shifts to key Australian data releases, with May CPI due Wednesday expected at -0.4% m/m and +4.3% y/y per Reuters poll consensus.Labour market data follows on Thursday, with expectations for +30K jobs added and unemployment steady at 4.4%, both key inputs for RBA policy signals.RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser is scheduled to speak in Melbourne on Wednesday, with markets watching for any shift in policy tone . Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7080(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7118(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6940(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6902(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar steadied against yen on Tuesday as repeated verbal intervention efforts from Tokyo failed to stem the currency’s decline.Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said she spoke by phone with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, reaffirming an agreement to coordinate action in currency markets if needed.Investors remain on high alert for another round of official intervention after the yen erased all the gains recorded on April 30, when Tokyo conducted a record-sized currency-buying operation.The yen has remained under pressure despite the Bank of Japan’s recent interest rate hike, which markets view as insufficient to significantly reduce the country's interest-rate differential with other major economies’. Immediate resistance can be seen at 161.62(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 162.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 161.21(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 160.13(SAM 20).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks fell on Tuesday after the U.S. waived sanctions on Iran, while traders grappled with rising expectations the Federal Reserve may take more aggressive action to tackle inflation later this year.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 3.46% , South Korea’s Kospi is down at 9.99%, China A50 was down at 2.74%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices declined more than 1% on Tuesday, weighed down by a stronger U.S. dollar amid growing expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this year, as investors also monitored progress in U.S.–Iran peace talks.
Spot gold was down 1.7% at $4,119.13 per ounce, as of 0548 GMT. U.S. gold futures for August delivery fell 1.5% to $4,137.10.
Oil prices fell more than 1% on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous session, as signs of progress in restoring crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz weighed on the market.
Brent crude futures fell $1.09, or 1.4%, to $76.81 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate declined to $72.99 a barrel, down 87 cents, or 1.2%, as of 0607 GMT.
