Market Roundup
- French centrist candidate Macron seen beating Far Right's Le Pen by 62 pct to 38 pct in Presidential runoff - Elabe poll .
- Australia Central Bank upbeat on long-term outlook, low wages a risk.
- RBA keeps June/December GDP forecast unchanged upgrades outlook for June 2018 by 25 bps; keeps underlying inflation forecasts unchanged.
- RBA says any US fiscal stimulus will add to demand, inflationary pressures.
- New Zealand inflation expectations rise for Q2 - RBNZ survey.
- Japan proposes expanding bilateral FX swap scheme with ASEAN.
- Japan reaches agreement on bilateral FX swap arrangement of up to $3 bln with Malaysia & Thailand.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0300 ET/0700 GMT) Spain Industrial Output Cal Adj YY % Mar 2.50 previous.
- (0730 ET/1130 GMT) India Forex reserves.
- (0800 ET/1200 GMT) UK Mortgage Rate % April 4.40 previous.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US NFP job data, previous 98K.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US unemployment rate, previous 4.5%.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) Canada employment change, previous 19.4K.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) Canada unemployment rate, previous 6.7%.
- (0900 ET/1300 GMT) Russia CPI mm, previous 0.1%.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) Canada Ivey PMI.
Key Events Ahead
- (1330 ET/1730 GMT) US Fed Chair Yellen speaks.
- (1330 ET/1730 GMT) Chicago Fed President Evans speaks.
- (1330 ET/1730 GMT) FOMC member Rosengren speaks.
FX Recap
USD: The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was down 0.03 percent on Friday at 98.76 marks.
EUR/USD: The euro traded near a six-month high against the dollar on Friday, supported by expectations that centrist Emmanuel Macron will win France's presidential election. The euro eased 0.1 percent to $1.0979, holding near Thursday's high of $1.0988, its highest since early November. The single currency rose on Thursday after Macron, in a Wednesday TV debate with anti-EU candidate Marine Le Pen, consolidated his position as the likely winner of France's presidency. The euro was also supported by expectations that the European Central Bank could take a more hawkish tone on its monetary policy at next month's meeting.
USD/JPY: The Japanese yen erases previous loss against U.S. dollar and was trading around 112.25 marks. Pair made intraday high at 112.65 and low at 112.14 levels. A sustained close above 112.44 is required to take the parity higher towards 113.72, 115.37 and 117.42 marks. Alternatively, a daily close below 112.44 will drag the parity down towards 110.87/108.13 levels.
GBP/USD: The Sterling rose above $1.29 on Thursday after stronger-than-expected data from Britain's huge services sector, which was seen bolstering the case for the Bank of England to raise interest rates sooner rather than later. The Markit/CIPS Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), a closely watched gauge of Britain's services industry, rose to a four-month high of 55.8 in April, above all forecasts in a Reuters poll of economists. The pair was currently trading around $1.2925 levels.
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar hovered near multi-month lows against its U.S. counterpart and euro on Friday as iron ore prices extended losses, putting it on track for a hefty weekly drop. The Australian dollar slipped to a four-month trough of $0.7378, from $0.7410 early, having fallen 1.3 percent since Monday in a third consecutive week of losses. The Aussie also hit six-month lows against a euro that has been re-energised by expectations that centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron will win Sunday's presidential election in France.
NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar fell to an 11-month low of $0.6840 overnight before recovering slightly to $0.6882. The Kiwi was set to stand largely flat on the week, after falling 2.3 percent the previous week.
Equities Recap
Hong Kong’s Hang seng was trading 1.15 percent lower at 24,400 points.
Australia’s S&P ASX200 was trading 0.80 percent lower at 5,830 points.
Shanghai composite index to open down 0.4 pct at 3,114.77 points and China's CSI300 index to open down 0.3 pct at 3,393.48 points.
Taiwan’s market was trading 0.54 percent lower at 9,913.23 points.
India’s NSE Nifty was trading around 0.40 percent lower at 9,322.90 points and BSE Sensex was trading at 0.47 percent lower at 29,985.01 points.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices fell by as much as a further 3 percent on Friday, after prices had crashed to five-month lows in the previous session, as concerns about global oversupply wiped out all of the price gains since OPEC's move to cut output. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were trading at $44.14 per barrel at 0335 GMT, down $1.39 or 3 percent, after a more than 4 percent drop the previous session. WTI futures have fallen below prices when the OPEC cuts were agreed in late November and are at their lowest since Nov. 14. Brent crude futures were at $47.05 per barrel at 0335 GMT, down $1.33 or 2.8 percent from their last close. Brent tumbled back below $50 in the previous session and is its lowest since Jan. 14.
Gold inched up on Friday as the euro rose against the dollar, but was on track for its biggest weekly fall since November on receding political risks in France and expectations of a U.S. rate rise as early as June. Gold edged up slightly from a near seven-week low of $1,225.20 hit on Thursday, but is poised to end the week down over 3 percent, the biggest percentage fall since the week ending Nov. 11. Spot gold rose 0.1 percent to $1,228.17 per ounce as of 0311 GMT.
Treasuries Recap
New Zealand government bonds eased, sending yields 0.5 basis points higher at the long end of the curve.
Australian government bond futures fell to one-month lows, with the three-year bond contract off 3 ticks at 98.060. The 10-year contract eased 3.5 ticks to 97.2900, while the 20-year contract lost 2.5 ticks to 96.7200.
