Market Roundup
- CFTC IMM CTA data – Specs cut net USD longs in latest week, EUR net shorts lowest since May ’14, 7.9k contracts, JPY net shorts 53.1k, GBP 104k.
- Trump ready to tackle NoKorea alone, says US will act unilaterally if China does not pressure Pyongyang — Financial Times exclusive.
- Trump trade still set to fixate investors in busy April, French elections, Brexit negotiations and central bank policy will also hold sway – FT.
- Central banks ditch EUR for GBP amid bloc jitters, concerns over political instability and negative interest rates – Financial Times.
- Japan BoJ March Tankan survey – Big Mfg index +12, big non-Mfg +20, +14 and +20 eyed, Dec +10, +18, June eyed at +11, +16, +13 and +18 in previous poll, CAPEX this fiscal year +0.6%for big firms, small firms -22.6, -0.1% and -18.4 eyed, big manufacturers see USD averaging 108.43 this fiscal year, big Mfg index highest since Dec ’15, big non-Mfg index up for first time in six qtrs, highest since March ’16, overall report more cool than tepid.
- Japan March mfg PMI – final 54.2, flash 52.6, Feb final 53.3.
- Japan Abe adviser calls for clean break at BoJ post-Kuroda – DowJones.
- Japanese megabanks to raise mortgage rates – Nikkei.
- PBOC – Economy stable but complexities cannot be underestimated – Reuters.
- PBOC lends CNY497 bln via medium-term facility in March, outstanding supplementary lending CNY2.2158 trln.
- Chinese underground lenders report strong March activity, Underground Lending Index supported by consumer and real estate demand – Financial Times.
- China March Caixin Mfg PMI 51.2, 51.6 eyed, Feb 51.7, export orders slow.
- ECB/Slovenia CB Jazbec – Data shows ECB’s QE decision was right – Dnevnik.
- Buba Dombret – Eyes end to “free banking” – Die Welt.
- Spain EconMin de Guindos – Will meet 3.1% ’17 budget deficit target –El Pais.
- Iceland weighs plan to peg krona to another currency – FT exclusive.
- Australia March AIG PMI -1.8 point to 57.5.
- Australia Feb retail sales -0.1% m/m, +0.3% eyed, Jan +0.4%.
- Australia Feb bldg approvals +8.3% m/m, -1.0% eyed, priv-sector houses +5.3%.
- Australia March CoreLogic HPI +1.4% m/m, +12.9% y/y, Feb +1.4%, +11.7%, biggest y/y rise since May ‘10.
- Australia March job ads +0.3% m/m, +7.0% y/y, Feb rev -0.8% m/m.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0300 ET/0700 GMT) Norway Mar Mfg PMI, 52.7 eyed; last 52.6.
- (0315 ET/0715 GMT) Spain Mar Mfg PMI, 54.7 eyed; last 54.8.
- (0315 ET/0715 GMT) Switzerland Feb retail sales; last -1.4% y/y.
- (0330 ET/0730 GMT) Switzerland Mar Mfg PMI; last 57.8.
- (0345 ET
/0745 GMT) Italy Mar Mfg PMI, 54.9 eyed; last 55.0.
- (0350 ET/0750 GMT) France Mar Mfg PMI, 53.4 eyed; flash 53.4.
- (0355 ET/0755 GMT) Germany Mar Mfg PMI, 58.3 eyed; flash 58.3.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Eurozone Mar Mfg PMI, 56.2 eyed; flash 56.2.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Italy Feb unemployment; last 11.9%.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) Great Britain Mar Mfg PMI, 54.6 eyed; last 54.6.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Eurozone Feb unemployment, 9.5% eyed; last 9.6%.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Eurozone Feb producer prices, +0.3% m/m, +4.3% y/y eyed; last +0.7%, +3.5%.
- (0945 ET/1345 GMT) United States Mar Markit Mfg PMI – final; flash 53.4.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) United States Mar ISM Mfg PMI, 57.0 eyed; last 57.7.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) United States Feb construction spending, +1.0% m/m eyed; last -1.0%.
- (1530 ET/1930 GMT) United States Mar total vehicle sales, 17.3 mln AR eyed; last 17.58 mln AR.
Key Events Ahead
- N/A ECB Coeure speaks at Paris conference.
- N/A Norway NOK3 bln NST38 1-year treasury bill auction.
- (0530 ET/0930 GMT) Netherlands E1-2 bln 6-month DSL auction.
- (0850 ET/1250 GMT) France 3/6/12-month BTF note auctions.
- (1030 ET/1430 GMT) NY Fed Dudley economic briefing.
- (1500 ET/1900 GMT) Philly Fed Harker lecture in at U.Penn.
- (1700 ET/2100 GMT) Richmond Fed Lacker lecture at Washington & Lee University.
FX Beat
DXY: The dollar eased versus its major peers following soft United States economic data and dovish remarks from a Federal Reserve official on Friday. The greenback against a basket of currencies traded 0.1 percent down at 100.40, having hit a high of 100.65 on Thursday, its highest since Mar. 16. FxWirePro's Hourly Dollar Strength Index stood at 47.60 (Neutral) by 0500 GMT.
EUR/USD: The euro edged up after falling to a 2-week low in the previous session as the greenback eased following some lacklustre U.S. data and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials. The European currency traded 0.2 percent up at 1.0679, having touched a low of 1.0651 on Friday, its lowest since Mar. 15. FxWirePro's Hourly Euro Strength Index stood at -119.56 (Highly Bearish) by 0400 GMT. Investors now await Eurozone manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate and producer price index figures, ahead of U.S. manufacturing PMI and construction spending data. Immediate resistance is located at 1.0706 (78.6% retrace of 1.0905 and 1.0651), a break above targets 1.0749 (61.8% retrace). On the downside, support is seen at 1.0650, a break below could drag it near 1.0600.
USD/JPY: The dollar declined after rising to a 10-day high in the previous session, as downbeat U.S. economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials weakened the bid tone around the major. The pair traded 0.02 percent down at 111.34, hovering away from a high of 112.19 touched on Friday, its highest since Mar. 21. FxWirePro's Hourly Yen Strength Index stood at 0.48 (Neutral) by 0400 GMT. Investors’ will continue to track price action in the treasury yields, ahead of U.S. manufacturing PMI, construction spending data and FOMC member Dudley, Harker and Lacker’s speech. Immediate resistance is located at 112.00, a break above targets 112.79 (21-DMA). On the downside, support is seen at 111.00, a break below could take it near 110.61.
GBP/USD: Sterling rose, extending gains for the third consecutive session as the dollar weakened across the board, while investors eyed on Brexit negotiations following the recent triggering of Article 50. The major trades 0.04 percent higher at 1.2490, hovering away from a low of 1.2376 hit last week, its lowest since Mar. 21. FxWirePro's Hourly Sterling Strength Index stood at 163.17 (Highly Bullish) by 0400 GMT. Investors’ attention will remain on UK Markit manufacturing PMI figures ahead of U.S. economic data. Immediate resistance is located at 1.2596 (Mar 28 High), a break above could take it near 1.2638 (Jan. 25 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.2527 (23.6% retrace 1.2375 and 1.2556), a break below targets 1.2500. Against the euro, the pound traded 0.26 percent lower at 85.10 pence, having hit a high of 84.81 earlier, its highest since Feb 27.
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar tumbled to a 1-week low after the data released in Australia showed the retail sales dropped 0.1 percent in the month of February, compared to the expected figure of 0.3 percent. However, strength in the economy's home prices and construction limited the downside in the major. The Aussie trades 0.33 percent down at 0.7602, having hit a low of 0.7599 earlier, it’s lowest since Mar. 28. FxWirePro's Hourly Aussie Strength Index stood at -66.41 (Bearish) by 0500 GMT. Investors will continue to track broad based market sentiment, ahead of U.S. economic data and FOMC members’ speeches. Immediate support is seen at 0.7587 (Mar-28 Low), a break below targets 0.7550. On the upside, resistance is located at 0.7662 (Previous Session High), a break above could take it near 0.7700.
NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar eased after a report showed that the economy's GDP growth slowed in the final quarter of 2016. However, despite slower real GDP growth, nominal GDP increased strongly as dairy prices increased. The Kiwi trades 0.06 percent down at 0.7000, having touched a low of 0.6975 in the previous session, it’s weakest since Mar. 17. FxWirePro's Hourly Kiwi Strength Index was at 46.69 (Neutral) by 0500 GMT. Investors’ will continue to track overall market sentiment, ahead of U.S. macro fundamental drivers and Fed speeches. Immediate resistance is located at 0.7028 (10-DMA), a break above could take it over 0.7043. On the downside, support is seen at 0.6975 (Previous Session Low), a break below could drag it lower 0.6950.
Equities Recap
Asian shares advanced, underpinned by strong economic growth, while the dollar eased following lacklustre U.S. economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.3 percent.
Tokyo's Nikkei rose 0.64 percent to 19,031.12 points, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index eased 0.22 percent to 5,863.70 points and South Korea's KOSPI was trading 0.2 percent up at 2,164.99 points.
Shanghai composite index edged up 0.38 percent to 3,222.51 points, while CSI300 index was trading 0.56 percent higher at 3,456.05 points.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was trading 0.3 percent higher at 24,184.67 points.
Commodities Recap
Crude oil prices declined, halting its 4-day winning streak as a rise in the U.S. rig count increased shale output and stoked worries about global oversupply. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.5 percent down at $53.38 per barrel by 0408 GMT, having hit a high of $53.74 the prior session, its strongest since Mar. 9. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.5 percent to $50.50 a barrel, after rising as high as $50.80 on Friday, its highest since Mar. 9.
Gold prices steadied, after retreating from a 10-day low in the previous session, supported by downbeat United States economic data and dovish remarks from a Federal Reserve official on Friday. Spot gold was 0.05 percent up at $1,248.54 per ounce at 0416 GMT, having rebounded from a low of $1,239.53 the prior session, its lowest its Mar. 21. U.S. gold futures were flat at $1,251.
Treasuries Recap
The 10-year U.S treasury yield stood at 2.396 percent higher by 0.001 bps, while 5-year yield was 0.006 bps up at 1.934 percent.
The Australian government bond futures edged higher, with the three-year bond contract up 1 tick at 98.060, while the 10-year contract rose 2.5 ticks to 97.2950.
The New Zealand government bonds gained, pushing yields as much as 4.5 basis points lower at the long end of the curve.
