Market Roundup
- US Mortgage Market Index w/e 420.3, 435.60-prev
- US MBA Purchase Index w/e 170.2, 162.70-prev
- US Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 1861.8, 2012.80-prev
- US MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate w/e 3.99%, 3.93%-prev
- US New Home Sales-Units MM Jan 0.481m, f/c 0.470m, 0.482m-prev
- US New Home Sales Chg MM Jan -0.2%, 8.10%-prev
- BR FGV Consumer Conf Feb 85.4, 89.80-prev
- BR Bank Lending MM Jan -0.2%, 0.02-prev
- BR Federal Tax Revenue Jan 125.2b, 115b-prev
- BR Foreign Exchange Flows w/e 2.191b, 0.447b-prev
- MX Current Account Q4 -5310m, f/c -7611m, -2702m-prev
- MX Current Account/GDP Q4 2.1%, 2.00%-prev
- Fed's Yellen when we start to hike rates we will still be providing great deal of support for economy
- Fed's Yellen we expect inflation over the medium-term, the next two or three years, to move up to our 2 percent target
- Fed's Yellen says critically important that Fed is accountable to congress, says Fed is independent does not discuss mon policy w/executive branch
- Fed's Yellen should expect to see upward wage pressure in tighter job market, hike in min wage hopefully a good sign
- ECB's Draghi have not yet reached the stage of genuine economic monetary union, sovereign bond-buy program will last until we see a sustained adjustment in inflation path in line w/our inflation goal
- France's Sapin low euro, cheap oil, low interest rates and realistic deficit targets all support return to growth
- German FinMin spokesman says too early to talk about a third bailout for Greece
- Merkel says much work still to do on Greece, but agreement so far shows both sides willing to compromise
- ECB's Praet ECB likely to revise up economic growth forecasts, expects France to submit an ambitious reform programme in April
- EU gives France to 2017 to cut deficit, Italy, Belgium in clear
- Belgium to avoid EU disciplinary measures over its budget (De Tijd)
- Fitch affirms Mexico at 'BBB+'; outlook stable
- Brazil sees no need to capitalize Petrobras despite downgrade
- Fonterra continues to advise farmers to be cautious w/budgeting, there continues to be significant volatility in int'l commodity prices, New Zealand volumes are down w/cont'd uncertainty in milk production due to climatic conditions
- Turkish Pres Erdogan questioned whether the CB was under external influence, saying its interest rate policy was not suitable for Turkey's economy.
- EU seeking Ukraine, Russia early meeting to discuss gas dispute
- Brazil gov't and striking truckers fail to reach agreement in Wednesday talks over freight rates - senator
- (1645 ET/ 2145 GMT) New Zealand Ext Migration & Visitors Jan (previous 5.40%)
- (1645 ET/ 2145 GMT) New Zealand Perm/Long-Term Migration Jan (previous 4100.00)
- (1645 ET/ 2145 GMT) New Zealand Trade - Imports Jan (consensus 3.93b, previous 4.58b)
- (1645 ET/ 2145 GMT) New Zealand Trade Balance Jan (consensus -183.0m, previous -159.0m)
- (1645 ET/ 2145 GMT) New Zealand Trade Balance YY Jan (consensus -1.65b, previous -1.15b)
- (1645 ET/ 2145 GMT) New Zealand Trade - Exports Jan (consensus 3.71b, previous 4.42b)
- (1850 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Foreign Bond Investment w/e (previous 435.2b)
- (1850 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Foreign Invest JP Stock w/e (previous 113.9b)
- (1930 ET/ 0030 GMT) Australia Capital Expenditure Q4 (consensus -1.9%, previous 0.20%)
- (1930 ET/ 0030 GMT) Australia Building Capex Q4 (consensus -2.5%, previous -1.90%)
- (1930 ET/ 0030 GMT) Australia Plant/Machinery Capex Q4 (consensus -2%, previous 4.40%)
- (2030 ET/ 0130 GMT) Japan - Bank of Japan board member Koji Ishida speaks
FX Recap
USD/JPY: The dollar index fell for a second day and was last down 0.3 percent at 94.229, with the greenback shedding ground against almost every major currency. USD fell 0.08 percent against the yen to 118.890 yen. Option expiries for Thursday Feb 26th: USD/JPY: 119.50 (711M), 120.00 (605M)
USD/CAD: Neutral-to-dovish tone from Yellen in both testimonies added selling pressure to the greenback. USD/CAD now consolidating in the 1.2440/45 band after initially falling to the vicinity of 1.2400. Crude oil prices are rising for the first time in five sessions, adding to CAD strength. Support lie at 1.2353/1.12300, with immediate resiatnace at 1.2498 and finally 1.2518.
EUR/USD: Euro is posting marginal gains vs. the US dollar at the end of the NA session today, with EUR/USD hovering around 1.1350/55. Pair looking for a stronger catalysts to set a more clear direction in the near term. EUR/USD faces initial resistance at 1.1400 followed by 1.1450. A break below 1.1288 target 1.1278 support en route to 1.1270. Option expiries for Thursday Feb 26th: EUR/USD: 1.1505-10 (1.0B), 1.1550 (1.2B)
GBP/USD: GBP/USD is currently trading 1.5521 with a high of 1.5540 and a low of 1.5445. Pair is steady on the bid again after meeting supply through 1.5520. USD has been punished on the back of Yellen's two days of testimonies as markets now conclude that there will be no hike in June.
AUD/USD: AUD/USD is well placed for a trial of the 0.79 handle towards 0.7920. RSI indicate enough room for further advances while Yellen didn't offer markets any reason to get long of the greenback again again today. AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7889 with a high of 0.7902 and a low of 0.7822. Option expiries for Thursday Feb 26th: AUD/USD: 0.7755 (348M), 0.7885 (313M), 0.7900 (303M), 0.7980 (313M)
