Market Roundup
- US Challenger Layoffs Feb 50.579k, 53.041k-prev
- US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 320k, f/c 295k, 313k-prev
- US Jobless Claims 4-Wk Avg w/e 304.75k, 294.50k-prev
- US Continued Jobless Claims w/e 2.421m, f/c 2.400m, 2.404m-prev
- US Labor Costs Revised Q4 4.1%, f/c 3.3%, 2.70%-prev
- US Productivity Revised Q4 -2.2%, f/c -2.3%, -1.80%-prev
- US Durables Ex-Def, R MM Jan 2.9%, 3.00%-prev
- US Durable Goods, R MM Jan 2.8%, 2.80%-prev
- US Factory Orders MM Jan -0.2%, f/c 0.2%, -3.50%-prev
- US Durables Ex-Transpt R MM Jan 0%, 0.30%-prev
- US Nondef Cap Ex-Air R MM Jan 0.5%, 0.60%-prev
- US Factory Ex-Transp MM Jan -1.8%, -2.30%-prev
- CA Ivey PMI Feb 50.8, 42.60-prev
- CA Ivey PMI SA Feb 49.7, f/c 50, 45.40-prev
- BR IPC-Fipe Inflation Idx Feb .22%, f/c 1.22%, 1.62%-prev
- BR Auto Sales MM Feb -26.7%, -31.40%-prev
- BR Auto Output MM Feb -2.3%, 0.40%-prev
- ECB holds rates, focuses on rollout of bond-buy plan
- Draghi ECB to start bond buying on Mar 9, will not buy bonds w/yields below depo rate, already seen positive effects of bond-buying plan, purchases will continue until Sept '16, see '15/'16 GDP growth rising, very low or negative inflation in months ahead 2017 inflation at 1.7%, lower inflation f/c due to weak oil
- Euro sags to 11-1/2-year low, bonds rise after ECB
- BOE maintains key UK interest rate at 0.5 Pct, APP at GBP 375b
- Moody's: New Zealand's economic growth supports Aaa rating, despite falling dairy prices
- Turkish minister says central bank will take steps on lira when necessary
- Fitch: EU Investors Fear Strong USD Effect on Emerging Markets
- (1730 ET/ 2230 GMT) Australia AIG Construction Index Feb (previous 46.00)
- (1850 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Foreign Reserves Feb (previous 1261.10b)
- (0000 ET/ 0500 GMT) Japan Coincident Indicator MM (previous Jan 1.50)
- (0000 ET/ 0500 GMT) Japan Leading Indicator Jan (previous 1.50)
- No Significant Events
FX Recap
USD/JPY: USD/JPY rejected from fresh 3-year highs as investors shift their attention to the nonfarm payrolls report. The downside was contained by the 119.95 and the pair entered a consolidation phase. If USD/JPY breaks above 120.40, next resistances are seen at 120.81 and 121.00. On the flip side supports are at 119.46/43, 119.16 and 119.00. Option expiries: USD/JPY: 119.50 (545M), 120.00 (2.2BLN), 120.50 (1.1BLN), 121.00 (2.5BLN)
USD/CAD: The pair is retreating for the second consecutive week so far, although the area around 1.2400 the figure continues to offer solid support for the time being. USD/CAD keeping the trade in the upper-1.2400s so far. As we write, the pair is up 0.64% at 1.2506 with the next hurdle at 1.2501 followed by 1.2543 and then 1.2549. On the downside, a breach of 1.2407 would open the door to 1.2388 and finally 1.2360.
EUR/USD: EUR/USD is in terra incognita after breaking below to 11-year lows recently. 1.10 is a big round number which provided some resistance after the announcement. Below that there's a weekly low of 1.0765 from 2003, below that the market can aim at parity (1.0073 is the 76.4% retracement of the 2000-2008 move up in the pair). Option expiries: EUR/USD: 1.10 (2.4BLN), 1.1065-75 (1.9BLN), 1.1090-1.1100 (3BLN), 1.1150 (1.5BLN)
NZD/USD: Kiwi had been one of the worst performers as we await on the RBNZ. NZD/USD slide continues into NY session. Technically, the pair has breached the ascending supporting trend line from below the 0.72 handle with 0.7410 as target for the bears. A breach of here would open up space towards 0.7320 support. A minor bit of upside coming as a result of bids at 0.7460, targeting 0.7500/20. Currently the pair is trading at 0.7480 with a high of 0.7597 and a low of 0.7453. US nonfarm payrolls tomorrow will likely be the next catalyst.
AUD/USD: AUD/USD continues to trade heavy with speculation that the RBA will need to take action and soon. The pair was unable to sustain gains above the 0.7800 figure and is currently trading at 0.7769 with a high of 0.7842 and a low of 0.7752. The next support comes in at 0.7627 the Febr low protecting space to 0.7597. Below this level, there is very little support apart from the 0.7335.
