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Another ‘Super Thursday’ from Bank of England

Super Thursday is back.

…………… thanks to Bank of England’s (BOE), mega releases and events. Today Bank of England (BOE) will announce its regular monetary policy along with minutes. What makes today special is quarterly inflation report, which will be followed by a speech from Governor Mark Carney.

All the three releases, individually have enough firepower to generate volatility spike and release of all three might cast a storm over pound based pairs. All will though depend on wordings.

Preview of the four 

  • Monetary policy decision – No major change is expected from interest rates point of view, however, dovish or hawkish tone in the policy statement might set the mood for the pound and gilts ahead of NFP report.

 

  • BOE minutes – This release will be the center focus for today. The focus will be on the number counts of doves and the hawks. Some members including Governor Carney has indicated that rate hike could be the next move, so it would be interesting to see if anyone is following through their words at this meeting, though such is unlikely.
  • Quarterly inflation report – Possibilities are high that tone might be hawkish while forecasting inflation as several indicators pointed to a sharp rise in cost. Yesterday’s manufacturing report showed inflation acceleration at the highest ever.
  • Mark Carney speech – Mr. Carney is most likely to exert his firm view over interest rate neutrality but he is also like to point out that now may not be the time to hike rates.

Downside surprise would have more momentum today as all communications are expected to be neutral.

The pound is currently trading at 1.266 against the dollar and is likely to move higher towards 1.32 as the dollar is likely to weaken further.

 

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