Market Roundup
• UK parliament speaker approves Friday vote on Brexit Withdrawal Agreement
• DUP Deputy leader Dodds says will not back withdrawal agreement on Friday - BBC
• Fed's Williams says he is not as concerned about U.S. recession
• China shifts position on tech transfers, trade talks progress-U.S. officials
• China pledges to expand financial market opening as U.S trade delegation arrives
• German inflation slows in March, dropping further below ECB goal
• Markets underpricing "no-deal" Brexit risk, ECB's Draghi told EU leaders
• US Q4 GDP Final, 2.2%, 2.4% forecast, 2.6% previous
• US Q4 Core PCE Prices Final, 1.8%, 1.7% forecast, 1.7% previous
• US 23 Mar, w/e Initial Jobless Claims, 211k, 225k forecast, 221k previous, 216k revised
• US 16 Mar, w/e Continued Jobless Claims, 1.756 mln, 1.750 mln forecast, 1.750 mln previous, 1.743 mln revised
• US Feb Pending Homes Index, 101.9, 103.2 previous, 102.9 revised
• US Mar KC Fed Manufacturing, 17, -4 forecast
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
• 28 Mar 23:30 Japan Mar CPI, Overall Tokyo, 0.6% previous
• 28 Mar 23:30 Japan Mar CPI Tokyo Ex fresh food YY, 1.1% forecast, 1.1% previous
• 28 Mar 23:30 Japan Feb Jobs/Applicants Ratio, 1.63 forecast, 1.63 previous
• 28 Mar 23:30 Japan Feb Unemployment Rate, 2.5% forecast, 2.5% previous
• 28 Mar 23:50 Japan Feb Industrial Output Prelim MM SA, 1.0% forecast, -3.4% previous
• 28 Mar 23:50 Japan Feb Retail Sales YY, 1.2% forecast, 0.6% previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• N/A Bank of Italy Governor presents his "Final Considerations" on the occasion of the presentation of 2018 annual report in Rome
• 09:45 ECB board member Benoit Coeure participates in a panel discussion during the Banque de France Symposium & 34th SUERF Colloquium on the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the euro in Paris, France
• 13:25 Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams speaks on workforce development at an event hosted by My Brother's Workshop in St. Thomas, Virgin Islands
• 13:30 Norwegian Finance Minister Siv Jensen holds speech at seminar in Oslo organised by World Economic Forum
• 14:30 Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan participates in a moderated Q&A session before the Global Asset Management Education (GAME) Conference in new York
• 16:05 Federal Reserve Vice Chair Randal Quarles speaks at the Manhattan Institute's Shadow Open Market Committee's Spring 2019 Meeting in New York
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Thursday, as growing speculation that the ECB will introduce a tiered deposit rate weighed on single currency. Tumbling euro zone government bond yields have also weighed on the euro. The euro weakened 0.2 percent to $1.1222 as speculation grows that the ECB will introduce a tiered deposit rate, a sign that policymakers plan to keep interest rates low for longer. An index that tracks the dollar versus a basket of six major currencies was up 0.29 at 97.24 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1268 (5 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1339 (50 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1213 (38.2% retracement level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1166 (23.6% retracement level).
GBP/USD: Sterling declined to hit one-week low against dollar on Thursday, as hopes for a swift agreement on Brexit faded with the British parliament failing to agree on a way forward. The pound struggled against a resurgent dollar and took another leg down after a British government source said that a so-called "meaningful" vote in parliament on May's twice-defeated deal would not take place on Friday. The pound tumbled more than 1 percent to a one-week low of $1.3035 on Thursday. Against the euro, it weakened 1.2 percent to 86.06 pence, a four-day low. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3081 (50 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3167 (5 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3000 (Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2927 (100 DMA).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened on Thursday to a nearly three-week low against its U.S. counterpart as oil prices fell and investors flocked to the greenback. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, dipped after U.S. President Donald Trump called for OPEC to boost crude output in an effort to lower prices that were headed for their best quarterly gains in a decade. The decline for the loonie came ahead of data on Friday that is expected to show no growth in Canada's economy for the month of January. At (2014 GMT), the Canadian dollar was trading 0.2 percent lower at 1.3440 to the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3453 (38.2% retracement level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3500 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3413 (5 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3366 (11 DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar gained against the Japanese yen on Thursday, as other currencies were weakened by dovish signals from central banks. With many currencies on the defensive, the dollar has brushed aside a decline in benchmark U.S. Treasury debt yields to 15-month lows. The dollar rally continued in mid-morning U.S. trade even after the Commerce Department announced it had cut its measure of gross domestic product in the fourth quarter, when corporate profits fell by the most in a year. The third reading estimated growth at 2.2 percent, down from the initial estimate of 2.6 percent. The dollar was 0.14 lower versus the Japanese yen at 110.63. Strong resistance can be seen at 110.81 (50% retracement level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 111.38 (61.8% retracement level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 110.26 (38.2% retracement level), a break below could take the pair towards 109.59 (23.6% retracement level).
Equities Recap
European shares pared early gains to finish lower on Thursday as optimism around some progress in U.S.-China trade talks were outweighed by losses in banks amid a gloomy outlook for global economic growth and uncertainties around Brexit.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.57 percent, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 ended the day down by 0.19 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.09 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 10 percent.
U.S. stocks climbed on Thursday as Treasury yields rose off 15-year lows, with investors optimistic about the latest round of U.S.-China trade talks.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.35 percent, S&P 500 ended up 0.35 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.33 percent.
Treasuries Recap
Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose off 15-month lows on Thursday as U.S. stocks were little changed and investors continued to adjust to a dovish pivot from global central banks.
Ten-year notes fell 1/32 in price to yield 2.375 percent, after dropping to 2.340 percent in overnight trading, the lowest level since December 2017.
Commodities Recap
Gold declined on Thursday on concerns an economic slowdown could dent demand weighed on safe haven metal.
Gold shed 1.5 percent to $1,290.51 per ounce, breaking below the key $1,300 support level. U.S. gold futures settled 1.6 percent lower at $1,289.80 per ounce.
Oil futures were near flat on Thursday after recovering from the day's worst losses that came when U.S. President Donald Trump called for OPEC to boost crude output in an effort to lower prices that were headed for their best quarterly gains in a decade.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped 11 cents to settle at $59.30 a barrel. Brent crude futures lost 1 cent to settle at $67.82 a barrel, after earlier sinking to $66.54 a barrel.
