Market Roundup
• France 12-Month BTF Auction: 2.579%, 2.640% previous.
•France 3-Month BTF Auction: 2.377%, 2.388% previous.
•France 6-Month BTF Auction: 2.483%, 2.481% previous.
•U.S. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index (Jun): 0.0, 0.4 previous.
•U.S. 3-Month Bill Auction: 3.740%, 3.695% previous.
•U.S. 6-Month Bill Auction: 3.840%, 3.840% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 02:30 China Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun): 49.9, 50.1 forecast, 50.1 previous.
• 02:30 Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) (May): 0.7% forecast, 0.7% previous.
• 02:30 Australia Housing Credit (May): 0.6% previous.
• 04:00 New Zealand M3 Money Supply (May): 454 forecast,442.0B previous.
• 04:35 Japan 2-Year JGB Auction: 1.369% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Monday as Investors digested Christine Lagarde comments at ECB's annual Sintra conference.ECB President Christine Lagarde said the euro zone economy has become more resilient, giving the central bank greater scope to raise interest rates without triggering financial stress.Lagarde said this resilience will be crucial as the euro zone faces more frequent inflation shocks, forcing policymakers to balance overlooking price swings with taking decisive action.The ECB became the first major central bank this month to raise interest rates in response to the Iran war-driven energy shock, with policymakers now debating whether further tightening is needed.The spotlight this week is on Thursday's U.S. June jobs report, with any signs of labour market cooling likely to influence the Fed's policy outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1450(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1510(SMA20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1343(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1283(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher on Monday as sterling found support from easing geopolitical tensions, particularly improving U.S.-Iran relations, and a calmer UK political backdrop following Prime Minister Keir Starmer's resignation.Concerns over the UK's fiscal outlook have also eased after Andy Burnham reaffirmed his commitment to the country's fiscal framework, helping push 10-year gilt yields down from around 5.2% to 4.72%.With political and fiscal uncertainty fading, investors are turning their attention back to monetary policy, with this week's U.S. employment report expected to provide fresh clues on the Federal Reserve's next policy move. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3261(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3316(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3151(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3122(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against the greenback on Monday as investors monitored the implementation of the interim peace agreement between the United States and Iran.Talks aimed at restoring diplomacy in the Middle East come after days of escalating strikes following an Iranian attack on a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, with both parties claiming the other had broken the interim ceasefire.Canadian gross domestic product data, due on Tuesday, is expected to show the economy expanded 0.4% in April.The data could shape expectations for the Bank of Canada's policy path, with investors also looking ahead to Governor Tiff Macklem's appearance on Wednesday at the European Central Bank's annual central banking forum. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4250(23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4297(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4167(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 1.4118(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar hovered near 40 year high against yen on Monday as investors tracked the implementation of an interim peace deal between Iran and the U.S. The main focus for the U.S. economy this week will be Thursday's jobs report for June. Three consecutive months of stronger-than-expected payrolls have reinforced the Fed's hawkish shift, though any cooling in the labor market could prompt a more dovish reassessment. Investors are pricing in at least one Fed hike this year, a sharp reversal from expectations of two rate cuts before the Iran war. Japan's retail sales rose 5.3% year-on-year in May 2026, accelerating from a revised 2.8% increase in April and beating forecasts for a 3.2% gain. Immediate resistance can be seen at 161.94(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 162.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 161.21(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 160.13(SAM 20).
Equities Recap
European shares ended little changed on Monday as gains in technology stocks were offset by losses in construction firms, while investors assessed the durability of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.09 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.22 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.12 percent.
U.S. stocks surged on Monday, with the Dow closing at a record high, as easing U.S.-Iran tensions and a rebound in major technology stocks lifted market sentiment.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.72% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 1.09% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.81% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold eased on Monday after fresh U.S.-Iran tensions lifted oil prices and heightened inflation fears, reinforcing the case for higher interest rates.
Spot gold slid 1.7% to $4,020.68 per ounce by 2:00 p.m. ET (1800 GMT), after falling more than 2% earlier in the session and hitting a more than seven-month low last week. U.S. gold futures for August delivery settled 1.4% lower at $4,038.9.
Oil settled over 1% higher on Monday after fresh U.S.-Iran hostilities underscored the fragile interim peace deal, although expectations of recovering Strait of Hormuz shipping limited the rally.
Brent crude futures settled up $1.16, or 1.61%, at $73.15 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained $1.52, or 2.2%, to $70.75.
