Market Roundup
• White House calls for Fed to reverse on rate hikes
• No-deal Brexit fears rise as parliament sinks May's deal
• Fed's Kashkari says rate cut now would be 'premature'
• Kashkari says yield curve shows Fed may have gone too far
• Fed's Quarles: More rate hikes likely needed "at some point" given outlook
• Trump threatens to close U.S.-Mexico border to trade because of immigrant surge
• German retail, jobless data raises hopes for robust private consumption
• US Jan Personal Consump Real MM, 0.1%, -0.6% previous
• US Feb Personal Income MM, 0.2%, 0.3% forecast, -0.1% previous
• US Jan Consumption, Adjusted MM, 0.1%, 0.3% forecast, -0.5% previous, -0.6% revised
• US Feb Build Permits R Numb, 1.291 mln, 1.296 mln previous
• US Feb New Home Sales-Units, 0.667 mln, 0.620 mln forecast,, 0.607 mln previous, 0.636 mln revised
• US Mar U Mich Sentiment Final, 98.4, 97.8 forecast, 97.8 previous
• CA Jan GDP MM, 0.3%, 0.0% forecast, -0.1% previous
• CA Feb Producer Prices MM, 0.3%, -0.3% previous
• CA Feb Producer Prices YY, 1.2%, 1.0% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
• 31 Mar 01:00 China Mar NBS Manufacturing PMI, 49.5 forecast, 49.2 previous
• 31 Mar 01:00 China Mar NBS Non-Mfg PMI, 54.3 previous
• 31 Mar 22:30 Australia Mar AIG Manufacturing Index, 54.0 previous
• 31 Mar 23:50 Japan Q1 Tankan Big Mf Idx, 14 forecast, 19 previous
• 31 Mar 23:50 Japan Q1 Tankan Big Non-Mf Idx, 22 forecast, 24 previous
• 31 Mar 23:50 Japan Q1 Tankan All Big Capex Est, -0.4% forecast, 14.3% previous
• 31 Mar 23:50 Japan Q1 Tankan Small Mf Idx, 10 forecast, 14 previous
• 31 Mar 23:50 Japan Q1 Tankan All Sm Capex Est, -19.8% forecast, -3.7% previous
• 1 Apr 00:30 Japan Mar Nikkei Mfg PMI, 48.9 previous
• 1 Apr 01:30 Australia Mar NAB Business Confidence, 2 previous
• 1 Apr 01:45 China Mar Caixin Mfg PMI Final, 49.9 forecast, 49.9 previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• Apr 1 13:00 ECB's Luis de Guindos presents the ECB's annual report for 2018 to the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels
• Apr 1 19:10 BOC's Governor Stephen Poloz to speak at Baffin Regional Chamber of Commerce and Nunavut Mining Symposium, Iqaluit, NU
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro slipped lower against the U.S. dollar on Friday, as single currency weighed down by fears about economic growth and cautious signals from the European Central Bank. Policymakers cut growth forecasts for the euro zone economy earlier this month and launched a new round of cheap loans to its banks. Weaker-than-expected economic surveys from Germany and dovish signals from the ECB have pushed hedge funds to reduce their long euro positions. The single currency has also been weighed down by speculation the ECB will introduce a tiered deposit rate, providing a sign that policymakers plan to keep interest rates low for longer. The euro was down 0.02 percent at $1.1216. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1252 (50% retracement level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1297(61.8% retracement level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1205 (38.2% retracement level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1149 (23.6% retracement level).
GBP/USD:The pound declined against greenback on Friday, after lawmakers rejected Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal for a third time, putting the British currency on track for its biggest monthly loss in five. With May losing again albeit by a smaller magnitude than the previous two votes , sterling is set to remain under pressure on fears the United Kingdom will crash out of the European Union without a deal on April 12. The pound fell as much as half a percent to the day's low of $1.2977, briefly piercing a key market level of the 200-day moving average at $1.2979. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3132 (5 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3181 (11 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2979 (200 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2740 (23.6% retracement level).
USD/CAD:The Canadian dollar rallied to a one-week high against the greenback on Friday, to end the first quarter up more than 2 percent as investors cut bearish bets on the currency after data showed surprising strength in the domestic economy. The Canadian economy grew by 0.3 percent in January, beating analysts forecasts and reversing recent declines as the construction and manufacturing sectors picked up. At (2031 GMT), the Canadian dollar was trading 0.58 percent higher at 1.3358 to the greenback. The currency touched its strongest intraday level since March 21 at 1.3338. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3389 (50% retracement level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3465 (Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3300 (Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3285 (50 DMA).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against the yen on Friday, as the greenback gained on signs of progress in U.S.-China trade talks , while apprehensions about a global economic slowdown limited sharp gains. The United States and China said they made progress in trade talks that concluded on Friday in Beijing that Washington called "candid and constructive" as the world's two largest economies try to resolve a nearly nine-month trade war.The dollar was 0.18 higher versus the Japanese yen at 110.81. Strong resistance can be seen at 110.40 (50% retracement level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 111.51 (61.8% retracement level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 110.36 (38.2% retracement level), a break below could take the pair towards 109.62 (23.6% retracement level).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Friday but settled slightly below session highs after lawmakers rejected UK Prime Minister Theresa May's deal to exit the European Union for the third time, increasing the possibility of a 'no deal' or prolonged Brexit.
The UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.71 percent, FTSEurofirst 300 ended the day up by 0.56 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.76 percent, and France’s CAC finished the up by 0.87percent.
U.S. stocks ended the final trading day of the first quarter on a strong note on Friday, and the S&P 500 registered its best quarterly gain since 2009, boosted by optimism over trade talks between the United States and China.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.80 percent, S&P 500 ended up 0.67 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.13 percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday as risk sentiment improved into quarter-end, boosting stocks and reducing demand for safe haven bonds.
Benchmark 10-year notes fell 5/32 in price to yield 2.405 percent, after dropping to 2.340 percent in overnight trading on Thursday, the lowest since December 2017.
Commodities Recap
Gold inched up on Friday, but was on track for its first weekly decline in four weeks after posting its steepest fall in more than seven months in the previous session on a strong dollar.
Spot gold rose 0.1 percent to $1,291.40 per ounce by 0120 GMT, after falling about 1.5 percent in the previous session to touch its lowest since March 8 at $1,288.30. U.S. gold futures were flat at $1,290 an ounce.
Oil prices rose about 1 percent on Friday, posting their biggest quarterly rise in a decade, as U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela as well as OPEC-led supply cuts overshadowed concerns over a slowing global economy.
The May Brent crude oil futures contract, which expired Friday, gained 57 cents, or 0.8 percent, to settle at $68.39 a barrel, marking a first-quarter gain of 27 percent. The more-active June contract settled up 48 cents at $67.58 a barrel.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose 84 cents, or 1.42 percent, to $60.14 a barrel, and posted a rise of 32 percent in the January-March period.
