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America's Roundup: Dollar jumps vs safe-haven yen on U.S.-China trade deal hopes, Wall Street hits session high, Gold holds steady, Oil rises 1%-December 13th, 2019

Market Roundup

• Trump says U.S. ‘very close’ to trade deal with China

• U.S. offers to cancel new round of China tariffs - WSJ

• Russia Central Bank reserves (USD) 546.6B, 542.2B previous     

• Russia GDP Quarterly (YoY) (Q3) 1.7%,1.7% forecast, 1.7% previous      

• Russia Oct Trade Balance 12.42B, 14.00B forecast, 14.15B previous         

• US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,667K, 1,678K, 1,698K previous  

• US Nov Core PPI (YoY) 1.3%,1.6% forecast, 1.6% previous          

• US Nov Core PPI (MoM)  -0.2%,0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous

• US Initial Jobless Claims 252K, 213K forecast, 203K previous

• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 224.00K         217.75K previous

• US Nov PPI (MoM)  0.0%,0.2% forecast, 0.4% previous

• US Nov PPI (YoY)  1.1% , 1.2% forecast, 1.1% previous

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)

• 21:30 Brazil Nov Business NZ PMI  52.6 previous               

• 23:50 Japan Dec Reuters Tankan Index  -9 previous        

• 23:50 Japan Tankan All Big Industry CAPEX (Q4) 6.0%,6.6% previous        

• 23:50 Japan Tankan Big Manufacturing Outlook Index (Q4) 3, 2 previous              

• 23:50 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q4) 2, 5 previous

• 23:50 Japan Tankan Large Non Manufacturers Diffusion Index (Q4) 16, 15 previous       

• 23:50 Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q4) 16, 21 previous

• 02:00 Japan Dec Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI  39.95 previous  

• 02:00 China Dec Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI  69.40 previous  

• 04:30 Japan Oct Capacity Utilization (MoM)   1.0% previous          

• 04:30 Japan Oct Industrial Production (MoM)-4.2%,-4.2% previous

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)

• 10:00   Euro Summit                                     

Currency Summaries

EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Thursday after European Central Bank’s new president, Christine Lagarde, said the bloc was headed for a slow and steady economic recovery over the coming year. Speaking at her first news conference, Lagarde said that geopolitics, protectionism and vulnerabilities in emerging markets had skewed risks to the downside, but those risks were less pronounced than before. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1154  (Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1200 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1069 (Dec 10th low), a break below could take the pair towards   1.1000 (Psychological level).

GBP/USD: The pound rose against the dollar Thursday after exit polls suggested a win for the Conservatives, which should help ensure the UK’s smooth exit from the European Union. The early results suggest the election will relieve almost four years of uncertainty about when Brexit would take place, which should be supportive of the pound. The exit poll, which suggested UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson would get a majority of 86   the largest of any Conservative leader since Margaret Thatcher won in the 1980s   should empower him to deliver Brexit on Jan. 31. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3245 (Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3300 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3047 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2993 (21 DMA).

USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strenthed against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday, as oil prices rose after OPEC forecast a supply deficit next year. U.S. crude prices were up 0.2% at $58.9 a barrel, boosted by the Fed's message and a forecast by OPEC of a supply deficit next year. At   (1416 GMT), the Canadian dollar  was trading 0.2% lower at 1.3152 to the greenback.The currency traded in a range of 1.3163 to 1.3189.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3209 (50 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3231 (100 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3161 (Dec5th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3100(Psychological level).

USD/JPY: The dollar rose against the Japanese yen on Thursday  on reports that the United States has reached a deal in principle on trade with China, just days before new U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports were due to be imposed. The report follows U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments from earlier in the session when he said the United States was “very close” to nailing down a deal with China. Investors have been watching U.S.-China trade talks to see whether the United States would impose tariffs on nearly $160 billion in Chinese consumer goods by Dec. 15. Strong resistance can be seen at 109.50 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 110.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 108.94 (11 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 108.00(Psychological level).

Equities Recap

Euro zone banks enjoyed their best day in two months on Thursday after comments by new ECB chief Christine Lagarde, and European shares were propelled further by U.S.-China trade developments.

The UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.79 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.57 percent, and France’s CAC finished the day up  by 0.40 percent.

U.S. stocks hit record highs on Thursday after President Donald Trump tweeted that Washington was “very close” to a trade deal with Beijing and on a report that U.S. trade negotiators had offered to cancel a new round of tariffs on Chinese goods.

Dow Jones closed up by 0.79 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 0.86 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.73 percent.

Treasuries Recap

U.S. Treasury yields spiked on Thursday, with most maturities hitting four-week highs, after the United States offered to cut tariffs on existing Chinese goods and suspend those scheduled to take effect on Dec. 15, a precursor to a possible trade deal.     

The yield on the U.S. 10-year note rose to 1.892%, from 1.79% late on Wednesday. Earlier in the session, 10-year yields hit 1.903%, a four-week high. Yields on 30-year bonds were up at 2.321%, from 2.22% on Wednesday, touching the highest level since mid-November of 2.343% in earlier trading.                  

Commodities

Gold was steady on Thursday as investors waited to see if new U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods would emerge by a Dec. 15 deadline and after the Federal Reserve's decision to leave interest rates unchanged.

Spot gold was little changed at $1,474.40 an ounce  by 1118 GMT while U.S. gold futures  rose 0.3% to $1,479.10.

Oil prices rose more than 1% on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington was “very close” to nailing down a trade deal with China.

Brent crude  futures rose 76 cents, or 1.2%, to $64.48 a barrel by 1 p.m. EST (1800 GMT). West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude  futures rose 68 cents, or 1.2%, to $59.44 a barrel.

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