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America's Roundup: Dollar index retreats from 16-month peak, Wall Street ends mixed, Gold prices inch, Oil slumps 7 pct to one-year low as rout extends to 12 days-November 14th,2018

Market Roundup

•    Brexit divorce deal text agreed by EU and UK as opponents cry foul.

•    Oil slumps 6 pct as rout runs to 12 days on supercharged selling.

•    U.S. government posts $100 billion deficit in October.

•    U.S. in China trade talks again, demands 'change of posture'.

•    US Oct NFIB Business Optimism, 107.40, 107.90 previous.

•    Euro zone weighs action to stem market contagion from Italy - ECB's Praet

•    UK pay growth fastest since 2008 as firms face staff shortages

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)

•    13 Nov 23:30 Australia Nov Consumer Sentiment, 1.0% previous.

•    13 Nov 23:50 Japan Q3 GDP QQ, -0.3% forecast, 0.7% previous

•    13 Nov 23:50 Japan Q3 Annualised, -1.0% forecast, 3.0% previous

•    14 Nov 00:30 Japan Q3 Wage Price Index QQ, 0.6% forecast, 0.6% previous

•    14 Nov 00:30 JapanQ3 Wage Price Index YY, 2.3% forecast, 2.1% previous

•    14 Nov 02:00 China Oct Industrial Output YY, 5.7% f'cast, 5.8% previous.

•    14 Nov 02:00 China Oct Retail Sales YY, 9.1% forecast, 9.2% previous

•    14 Nov 02:00 China Oct Urban Investment (ytd)yy, 5.5% forecast, 5.4% previous

•    14 Nov 04:30 Japan Sep Capacity Utilization MM SA, 2.2% previous

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)

•    13 Nov 22:00 Fed San Francisco's Mary Daly speaks at Boise State University - Boise, Idaho 

•    14 Nov 07:00 Swedish Deputy Central Bank Governor Per Jansson talks about economic situation and monetary policy - Stockholm

•    14 Nov 08:30 Bundesbank's Jens Weidmann speaks at conference on economic policy challenges - Berlin 

•    14 Nov 15:00 Fed's Randal Quarles gives semiannual testimony, "Federal Reserve's Supervision and Regulation of the Financial System" before House Financial Services Committee - Washington 

•    14 Nov N/A BoE's Dave Ramsden participates in an online Q&A on future of money - London


Currency Summaries

EUR/USD is likely to find support at 1.1200 levels and currently trading at 1.1284  levels. The pair has made session high at 1.1296 and hit lows at 1.1214 levels. The euro rose edged higher against dollar on Tuesday , following comments from a British official that signaled Britain and the European Union are close to clinching an agreement for the nation to leave the economic bloc as negotiators seek to avoid missing a deadline. A stronger euro and sterling spurred profit-taking in the dollar, which reached a 16-month peak against a basket of currencies on Monday. Uncertainty over the terms of Brexit has bogged down both currencies as a deal is required to keep business open between the EU and the world's fifth-biggest economy. The euro's gain was limited by concerns about Italy's budget proposals and downbeat German investor sentiment data. The euro was up 0.52 percent at $1.1284. It had fallen to $1.1216, the lowest since June 2017. An index that tracks the dollar versus the euro, sterling, yen and three other currencies was 0.28 percent lower at 97.269, easing below a 16-month high of 97.693 reached on Monday.
GBP/USD is supported in the range of 1.2831 levels and currently trading at 1.2951 levels. It reached session high at 1.3044 and dropped to session low at 1.2936 levels. The British pound strengthened against the greenback on Tuesday after the United Kingdom and European Union agreed on the text for a Brexit divorce deal. Prime Minister Theresa May will present the draft withdrawal agreement to her senior ministers on Wednesday for discussion and then decide on the next steps, her office said in a statement that confirmed several British media reports. The news was cheered by investors hoping May can convince her ministers to back the draft agreement if there is to be enough time for a proposed Brexit summit of EU leaders in late November to approve it. Brussels diplomatic sources had said they feared any delay in agreeing the text would increase the chances of rejection by May's ministers or the British parliament. Sterling also jumped as high as $1.3047, up more than 1.4 percent on the day. That put the pound on course for its second-biggest daily rise since January. Analysts cautioned that May still had to win over many members of her party as well as the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party, which props up her minority government.

USD/CAD is supported at 1.3211 levels and is trading at 1.3254 levels. It has made session high at 1.3262 and lows at 1.3256 levels. The Canadian dollar lost ground against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday as Canadian dollar was under the pressure from lower oil prices which plunged on persistent concerns of weakening global demand. Brent and U.S. crude extended their fall from Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump put pressure on OPEC not to cut supply to prop up prices. Both crude benchmarks have fallen more than 20 percent since peaking at four-year highs in early October. U.S. crude futures settled down $4.24 a barrel, or 7.1 percent, to $55.69 a barrel. It was the largest one-day percentage decline for the contract since September 2015. U.S. crude has lost 28 percent since its early October peak.Brent ended down $4.65, or 6.6 percent, to $65.47 a barrel, the largest one-day loss since July. Brent has lost 25 percent since peaking at a four-year high in early October. It now sits at levels not seen since March. The U.S. dollar declined against a basket of major currencies. On Monday, it touched its highest since June 2017. The Canadian dollar  was last trading 0.1 percent higher at 1.3248 to the greenback, or 75.53 U.S. cents. 


USD/JPY is supported around 113.55 levels and currently trading at 113.81 levels. It peaked to hit session high at 114.03 and made session lows at 113.75 levels. The U.S. dollar dipped against the Japanese yen on Tuesday as the dollar paused its rally that had taken the currency to 16-month highs. The dollar has benefited over the last week from expectations for further U.S. interest rate hikes, as well as concerns over Italy's budget and ongoing Brexit talks. However, it ran out of steam on Tuesday. Investors also had their attention turned to U.S.-Sino trade tensions .The dollar index, a measure of the greenback's performance against a basket of major currencies, eased 0.4 percent, having hit its highest since June 2017 in the previous session. The dollar has benefited over the last week from expectations for further U.S. interest rate hikes, as well as concerns over Italy's budget and ongoing Brexit talks. This week, the market is looking at U.S. consumer prices and retail sales on the economic data front.  U.S. core CPI is expected to have risen slightly to 0.2 percent in October, from 0.1 percent the previous month.

Equities Recap

European shares recovered on Tuesday as hopes for an easing of the Sino-U.S. trade war and an imminent Brexit deal chased away the previous session's fears of a peak in tech stocks.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed flat, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 ended the day up by 0.75 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.04 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.37 percent.

Wall Street struggled for momentum on Tuesday, giving up early gains as a rebound in technology stocks and renewed hope for progress in trade talks were offse
t by drops in Boeing and energy stocks.

Dow Jones closed down by 0.38 percent, S&P 500 ended down by 0.13 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.02 percent.
Treasuries Recap

U.S. Treasury yields slid to more than one-week lows on Tuesday hurt by a sharp drop in oil prices, which suggested lower inflation going forward and affirmed a gradual pace of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve.

In late trading, benchmark 10-year note yields fell to 3.150 percent from 3.189 percent late on Friday. Ten-year yields earlier fell to 3.143 percent, a more than one-week low.U.S. 30-year yields were at 3.373 percent, compared with Friday's 3.392 percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold shook off earlier losses on Tuesday to move back above the key $1,200-per-ounce level, benefiting from a slight retreat in the dollar after a rally driven by the U.S. interest rate outlook and Brexit talks.

Spot gold edged up 0.1 percent at $1,201.15 per ounce at 1:30 p.m. EST (1830 GMT), having earlier touched its lowest since Oct. 11 at $1,195.90.U.S. gold futures settled $2.10 lower, or 0.17 percent, at $1,201.40.

Oil's slide accelerated on Tuesday, with U.S. futures suffering their steepest one-day loss in more than three years due to ongoing worries about weakening global demand and oversupply.

U.S. crude futures settled down $4.24 a barrel, or 7.1 percent, to $55.69 a barrel. It was the largest one-day percentage decline for the contract since September 2015. U.S. crude has lost 28 percent since its early October peak.

Brent ended down $4.65, or 6.6 percent, to $65.47 a barrel, the largest one-day loss since July. Brent has lost 25 percent since peaking at a four-year high in early October. It now sits at levels not seen since March.
 

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