America’s Roundup: Dollar hits 15-month high versus yen, Wall Street rises, Gold ticks up, Oil prices up about 2% on OPEC+ output, demand prospects-July 2nd 2021

Market Roundup

• US Initial Jobless Claims 364K,390Kforecast, 411K previous

• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 392.75K, 397.75K previous

• US Continuing Jobless Claims 3,469K,3,382K, 3,390K previous

• US Jun Manufacturing PMI 62.1,62.6 previous

• US Jun ISM Manufacturing PMI 60.6,61.0 forecast, 61.2 previous

• US Jun ISM Manufacturing Employment 49.9,50.9 previous

• US Jun ISM Manufacturing Prices 92.1,86.5, 88.0 previous

• US Jun ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index 66.0, 67.0 previous

• US Natural Gas Storage 76B, 68B forecast, 55B previous

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)

•23:00 US Total Vehicle Sales 17.00M previous

•23:50 Japan Monetary Base (YoY) 22.4% previous

01:30 Australia Home Loans (MoM) 4.3% previous

Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)

•No significant events

Currency Summaries

EUR/USD: The euro edged lower against dollar on Thursday as greenback crept higher as investors looked to Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for clues on whether the Federal Reserve will start to reduce monetary stimulus sooner rather than later. Traders are looking to Friday's U.S. payrolls report for confirmation of the market's bullish outlook. Economists polled expect a gain of 700,000 jobs last month, compared with 559,000 in May, and an unemployment rate of 5.7% versus 5.8% in the previous month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1900 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1917 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1837(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1760(Lower BB).

GBP/USD: Sterling fell on Thursday after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned against over-reaction to rising inflation in Britain.Bailey said on Thursday in his annual Mansion House speech that it was important to ensure that the recovery was not undermined by a premature tightening in monetary conditions, as a rise in inflation was likely to be temporary. Sterling was one of the worst-performing G-10 currencies last week after the BoE kept the size of its stimulus programme unchanged and said inflation would surpass 3%, but that the climb further above its 2% target would be only temporary . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3786 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3866(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3754 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3715 (Lower BB).

USD/CAD: Canadian dollar declined against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as new coronavirus outbreaks around the world pressured commodity-linked currencies and investors awaited key economic data to released on Friday. Friday's closely watched U.S. Labor Department report is expected to show that nonfarm payrolls increased by 700,000 in June, after rising by 559,000 in May, according to a poll of economists. The unemployment rate is forecast to have fallen to 5.7%, from 5.8% in May. The Canadian dollar was up 0.03 percent at 1.4071 to the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2454 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2503 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2379(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2357 (11DMA).

USD/JPY: The dollar gained against yen on Thursday ahead of Friday's U.S. jobs report, which could offer clues on when the Federal Reserve will start to pare back stimulus. Focus is on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for clues on the timeline of the U.S. monetary policy shift, after Federal Reserve officials suggested the central bank should ease asset purchases this year. A poll forecast a gain of 690,000 jobs this month. The U.S. currency rose as high as 111.50 yen for the first time since March 25, 2020, up 0.3% on the day. Strong resistance can be seen at 111.60(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 111.72 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 111.19(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 110.87 (5DMA).

Equities Recap

European shares ended higher on Thursday as a rally in crude prices saw energy stocks surge more than 2%, while strong earnings reports helped dispel some concerns over the infectious “Delta” variant of the coronavirus.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 1.25 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.47 percent, France’s CAC finished the day upby 0.71 percent.

The S&P 500 reached its sixth consecutive all-time closing high on Thursday, as a new quarter and the second half of the year began with upbeat economic data and a broad-based rally.

Dow Jones closed up by 0.38% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.52% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.13% percent.

Treasuries Recap

U.S. Treasury yields crept a little higher on Thursday as the market awaited the government's June employment report for clues on how it might influence Federal Reserve monetary policy.

The benchmark 10-year yield was last up 3.1 basis points at 1.4747%. On Wednesday, it tumbled to its lowest level since June 21 at 1.438% due mostly to quarter- and month-end demand.

Commodities recap

Gold edged up on Thursday as a more than 7% slide in June prompted some traders to buy the metal amid concerns over the Delta variant of the coronavirus, but moves were capped by caution over Friday’s U.S. payrolls data and a strong dollar.

Spot gold was up 0.2% to $1,773.09 per ounce by 2:22 pm EDT (1822 GMT), while U.S. gold futures settled up 0.3% at $1,776.80.

Oil prices rose roughly 2% on Thursday on indications that OPEC+ producers could increase output more slowly than expected in coming months, while rising global fuel demand causes supply to tighten.

Brent crude settled at $75.84 a barrel, up $1.22, or 1.6%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $75.23 a barrel, gaining $1.76, or 2.4%.