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America's Roundup: Dollar falls vs yen as U.S. Treasury curve flashes warning, Wall Street tumbles, Gold gains, Oil prices near 2019 highs amid OPEC supply cuts, U.S. sanctions-March 23rd, 2019

Market Roundup

• Euro zone business growth worse than expected in March -PMI

• Trump taps ex-campaign adviser Stephen Moore for Fed governor

• US Mar Markit Mfg PMI Flash, 52.5, 53.6 forecast, 53.0 previous

• US Feb Existing Home Sales, 5.51 mln, 5.10 mln forecast, 4.94 mln prev, 4.93 mln revised

• US Feb Exist. Home Sales % Chg, 11.8%, 2.2% forecast, -1.2% prev, -1.4% revised

• US Jan Wholesale Invt(y), R MM, 1.2%, 0.2%  forecast

• US Feb Federal Budget($) -234.00 bln, -227.00 bln forecast, 9.00 bln previous

• Trump says he is withdrawing earlier N.Korea-related sanctions

• Returning to London, Britain's May faces mammoth task to change minds on Brexit

• CA Feb CPI Inflation MM, 0.7%, 0.6% forecast, 0.1% previous

• CA Feb CPI Inflation YY, 1.5%, 1.4% forecast, 1.4% previous

• CA Jan Retail Sales MM, -0.3%, 0.4% forecast -0.1% previous, -0.3% revised

• CA Feb CPI BoC Core YY, 1.5%, 1.5% previous

• CA Feb CPI BoC Core MM, 0.7%, 0.3% previous

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)

• No economic data scheduled

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)

• Mar 23 01:30 Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy at dinner before the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference in San Francisco

• Mar 25 N/A ECB's Benoit Coeure, Eurogroup chief Mário Centeno, IMF deputy chief David Lipton and Portuguese central bank chief Costa to speak at a conference on Portuguese reforms in Lisbon

• Mar 25 10:30 Philadelphia Fed's Patrick Harker gives OMFIF City Lecture on the economic outlook in London

• Mar 25 06:00 Chicago Fed's Charles Evans speaks on the economy and monetary policy before the 2019 Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference in Honk Kong

Currency Summaries

EUR/USD: The euro rose against US dollar on Friday, as weaker-than-expected German manufacturing survey weighed on single currency. Businesses across the euro zone performed much worse than expected in March as factory activity contracted at the fastest pace in nearly six years, hurt by a big drop in demand, a survey showed on Friday.  The euro was 0.69 percent lower at $1.1295, after slipping as low as $1.1288 its weakest since March 13.An index that tracks the dollar versus a basket of six major currencies was down 0.32 at 96.66 after hitting a 16-month high of 97.693 on Monday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1341 (38.2% retracement level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1396 (50% retracement level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1275 (23.6% retracement level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1200 (Psychological level).

GBP/USD: The pound strengthened against greenback on Friday, after European Union leaders gave UK Prime Minister Theresa May a two-week reprieve to decide how Britain will leave the European Union. Disappointing economic survey results in both the euro zone and the United States raised volatility across currency markets on Friday and added to the pound's gains. The pound was up 0.7 percent at $1.32000, while its gains versus the euro were as high as 1.5 percent to 85.49 pence. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3145 (38.2% retracement level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3232 (23.6% retracement level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3071 (23.6% retracement level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2993 (61.8% retracement level).

USD/CAD:The Canadian dollar weakened to an 11-day low against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as the greenback broadly climbed and data supported the view of a slowing domestic economy that rules out further Bank of Canada interest rate hikes in the near term.At    (2030 GMT), the Canadian dollar   was trading 0.3 percent lower at 1.3421 to the greenback . The currency, which touched its weakest since March 11 at 1.3428, was on track to fall 0.5 percent for the week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3426 (23.6% retracement level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3466 (March 8th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3396 (38.2% retracement level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3364 (50% retracement level).

USD/JPY: The dollar weakened against the Japanese yen on Friday, as dismal U.S. manufacturing data fueled worries about the wider economy, and Treasury bond yields signaled growing fears of a recession. The dollar was 0.66 percent lower against the yen at 110.07, a nearly six-week high for the Japanese currency. Strong resistance can be seen at 110.36 (50% retracement level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 111.04 (61.8% retracement level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 109.69 (38.2% retracement level), a break below could take the pair towards 108.89 (23.6% retracement level). 

Equities Recap

European stock markets deepened losses on Friday, closing near session lows, as fears of a slowdown in global growth after weak manufacturing data from across Europe were exacerbated by dismal data from the United States.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 2 percent, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 ended the day up by 1.25 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 1.6 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 2 percent.

Wall Street stocks sold off sharply on Friday, with all three major U.S. stock indexes posting their biggest one-day percentage declines since Jan. 3, as weak factory data from the United States and Europe led to an inversion of U.S. Treasury yields, fueling fears of a global economic downturn.

Dow Jones closed down by 1.75 percent, S&P 500 ended down 1.89 percent, Nasdaq finished the day down by 2.48 percent.

Treasuries Recap

U.S. markets received a clear warning of coming recession on Friday when the spread between yields on three-month Treasury bills and 10-year notes fell below zero for the first time since 2007 after U.S. manufacturing data missed estimates.

The 10-year yield, which is a proxy for investor sentiment fell to its lowest since January 2018 at 2.418 percent. The fall in the 10-year also weighed on the spread between two- and 10-year yields, another significant measure of the yield curve, which fell to a three-month low of 9.5 basis points.

Commodities Recap

Gold prices rose on Friday as weak economic data from the euro zone exacerbated fears of a global slowdown, weighing on risk sentiment and putting bullion on track for its best week in nearly two months.

Spot gold climbed about 0.3 percent at $1,313.07 per ounce by 1:48 p.m. EDT (1748 GMT), while U.S. gold futures settled 0.4 percent higher at $1,312.3

Oil fell about 2 percent on Friday, slipping further from 2019 highs as focus shifted to a lack of progress in U.S.-China trade talks and as grim manufacturing data from Germany and the U.S. reignited fears of a slowdown in the global economy and oil demand.

Brent crude futures settled at $67.30 per barrel, 83 cents, or 1.2 percent below their last close and down about 0.2 percent on the week. The contract hit a four-month high of $68.69 on Thursday.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures   fell 94 cents, or 1.6 percent, to settle at $59.04 per barrel. WTI marked a 2019 peak on Thursday at $60.39 and rose 0.8 percent on the week.

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2019-04-19 00:47:08
0m

April 18 23:30 UTC Released

JPCPI Less Food and Energy

Actual

101.5 Index

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Previous

101.4 Index

April 18 23:30 UTC Released

JPNationwide Core CPI YY

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0.3 Percent

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0.3 Percent

January 31 00:00 UTC 637987637987m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

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2016 bln ARS

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January 31 00:00 UTC 637987637987m

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2016 bln ARS

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January 22 19:00 UTC 649807649807m

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-1541 %

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2016 bln ARS

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January 22 19:00 UTC 649807649807m

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-1541 %

January 31 00:00 UTC 637987637987m

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2016 bln ARS

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January 31 00:00 UTC 637987637987m

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January 31 00:00 UTC 637987637987m

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2016 bln ARS

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