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America's Roundup: Dollar drops to more than one-month low ,Wall Street gains, Gold rises, Oil falls, fanned by inventory rise and global demand worries-October 18th,2019

Market Roundup

• Dollar nurses overnight losses

• China hopes to reach trade deal with U.S. soon

• Sterling jump 1% as UK and EU agree new Brexit deal

• US Sep Building Permits 1.387M, 1.340M forecast, 1.425M previous

• US Sep Building Permits (MoM) -2.7%,-26.0% forecast, 7.7% previous

• US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,679K, 1,682K forecast, 1,689K    previous

• US Sep Housing Starts (MoM)   -9.4%, -8.6% forecast, 15.1% previous

• US Sep   Housing Starts 1.256M, 1.320M forecast, 1.386M previous

• US Initial Jobless Claims 214K, 212K forecast, 210K previous      

• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 214.75K  , 213.75K previous          

• US Oct Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 5.6, 7.3 forecast, 12.0 previous

• US Oct Philly Fed Business Conditions 33.8, 20.8 previous

• US Oct Philly Fed CAPEX Index 36.40, 25.90 previous

• US Oct Philly Fed Employment 32.9, 15.8 previous         

• US Oct Philly Fed New Orders 26.2, 24.8 previous           

• US Oct Philly Fed Prices Paid 16.80, 33.00 previous

• Canada ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 28.2K, 56.5K forecast, 49.3K previous           

• Canada   Manufacturing Sales (MoM)  0.8%,0.7% forecast, -1.3% previous         

• Russia Central Bank Reserves (USD) 535.4B, 532.9B previous    

• Russia PPI (MoM) -0.3%,-0.6% previous

• Russia PPI (YoY) -1.2%,0.3% previous   

• Russia Sep Retail Sales (YoY)  0.7%,1.0% forecast , 0.8% previous

• Russia Sep Unemployment Rate 4.5% , 4.3% forecast, 4.3% previous   

• US Sep Capacity Utilization Rate 77.5%,77.7%    forecast ,77.9% previous

• US Sep Industrial Production (YoY) -0.14%,0.38% previous         

• US Sep Industrial Production (MoM) -0.4%,-0.1% forecast, 0.8% previous

• US Sep Manufacturing Production (MoM) -0.5%,-0.2% forecast, 0.6% previous              

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT) 

• 23:30 Japan Sep CPI, n.s.a (MoM) 0.2% previous

• 23:30 Japan Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI) (YoY) 0.6% forecast, 0.6% previous   

• 23:30 Japan Sep National Core CPI (YoY)  0.3% forecast, 0.5% previous

• 23:30 Japan National CPI (MoM) 0.0% previous

• 23:50 Japan Foreign Bonds Buying -428.3B previous

• 23:50 Japan Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks 1,072.5B

• 23:50 Japan Sep Trade Balance  -355.9B forecast, -143.5B previous         

• 02:00 China GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 1.5% forecast, 1.6% previous

• 02:00 China GDP (YoY) (Q3) 6.1% forecast, 6.2% previous            

• 02:00 China Chinese GDP YTD (YoY) (Q3) 6.3% previous

• 02:00 China Sep Industrial Production (YoY)  5.0% forecast, 4.4%  previous          

• 02:00 China Sep Chinese Industrial Production YTD (YoY) 5.6% previous

• 02:00 China Chinese Unemployment Rate 5.2% previous                             

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)

• 14:00 US FOMC Member George Speech           

 • 14:00 US FOMC Member Kaplan Speech

• 14:30 US FOMC Member Kashkari Speech 

• 15:30 US FOMC Member Clarida Speech            

• 21:10 US FOMC Member Kaplan Speech                            

Currency Summaries

EUR/USD: The euro gained against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as single currency got a lift from long-awaited Brexit deal. Britain clinched an eleventh-hour deal on its exit from the EU on Thursday, more than three years after Britons voted in a referendum to leave the bloc, but Prime Minister Boris Johnson still faces a knife-edge vote in parliament to get it approved.The euro was up 0.46 percent at $1.1112. An index that tracks the dollar versus a basket of six major currencies was down 0.12 percent at 97.39. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1139 (50 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1200 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1060 (50 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1010 (11 DMA).

GBP/USD: Sterling rose against dollar on Thursday after Britain clinched an eleventh-hour deal on its exit from the EU on Thursday, more than three years after Britons voted in a referendum to leave the bloc, but Prime Minister Boris Johnson still faces a after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Union officials said a Brexit deal was done. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said Britain and the EU had agreed a new Brexit deal, and he recommended that the EU summit endorsed the agreement. The pound jumped as high as $1.2988, a five-month high after knife-edge vote in parliament to get it approved. It was last trading at1.2874 at 19:30 GMT. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2989 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3052 (May 10th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2740(5 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2710(200 DMA).

USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened to a five-week high against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as investors welcomed an eleventh-hour Brexit deal and domestic data showed a stronger-than-expected gain for factory sales in August. Canadian manufacturing sales increased by 0.8% in August from July on higher motor vehicle sales, as well as fabricated metal products, Statistics Canada said. Analysts had forecast a 0.6% increase. At (1933 GMT), the Canadian dollar   was trading 0.2% higher at 1.3139 to the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3196 (5 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3256 (11 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3129 (Daily Low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3100 (Psychological level).

USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the Japanese yen on Thursday, as fading optimism over the latest China-U.S. trade deal increased demand for Japanese yen. The U.S. dollar, which had dropped on Wednesday as U.S. retail sales fell for the first time in seven months, hung near its overnight lows as earlier optimism about an announced “phase 1” of a trade deal with China ebbed in the absence of details.U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators are working on nailing down text for the first phase of the trade deal for their presidents to sign next month. Strong resistance can be seen at 108.93 (Daily High), an upside break can trigger rise towards 109.97 (Aug 1st high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 107.77(21 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 107.15 (50 DMA).

Equities Recap

Confirmation of a new Brexit deal lit a fire under Europe’s financial markets on Thursday, sent European stocks to a year-and-a-half peak.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.20 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by -0.12 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.42 percent.

Wall Street gained ground on Thursday as positive geopolitical developments and a string of corporate earnings beats put investors in a buying mood.

Dow Jones closed up by 0.18 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 0.34 percent, Nasdaq finished up by 0.43 percent.

Treasuries Recap

U.S. Treasury yields rose to their highest in almost a month on Thursday after Britain clinched a last-minute Brexit deal with the European Union, easing concerns about a disorderly exit.

Benchmark 10-year notes rose as high as 1.799%, a level last reached on Sept. 19, before dropping back to 1.754%.

Commodities

Gold rose on Thursday as weak data from the United States rekindled fears of an economic slowdown and as concerns surfaced over possible risks to a new Brexit deal, while supply-squeezed palladium continued its record run.

Spot gold was up 0.4% at $1,495.31 per ounce as of 01:58 p.m. EDT (1758 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 0.3% higher at $1,498.30 an ounce.

Oil prices edged lower on Thursday after a larger-than-expected rise in U.S. crude stockpiles and a series of weak economic figures, although a drop in fuel inventories helped offset the decline.

Global benchmark Brent crude   fell 8 cents to $59.34 a barrel at 1:16 p.m. ET (1716 GMT). U.S. WTI crude   also was down 8 cents, to $53.28 a barrel.

By Srikanth G
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