Market Roundup
• US Continuing Jobless Claims 5,757K, 5,335K forecast, 5,520K previous
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 776.00K ,739.50K previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims 853K, 725K forecast, 712K previous
• US Real Earnings (MoM) 0.1%, 0.1% previous
• US Nov CPI, n.s.a (MoM) -0.06%,0.04% previous
• US Nov CPI Index, s.a 260.82, 260.32 previous
• US Nov CPI Index, n.s.a. 260.23,260.11 forecast, 260.39 previous
• US Nov Core CPI (MoM) 0.2%, 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
• US Nov Core CPI (YoY) 1.6%, 1.6% forecast, 1.6% previous
• US Nov Core CPI Index 269.89,269.30 previous
• US CPI (MoM) 0.2%, 0.1% forecast , 0.2% previous
• US Nov CPI (YoY) 1.2%, 1.1% forecast ,1.2% previous
• US Nov Cleveland CPI (MoM) 0.1%,0.2% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
•01:00 New Zealand Net Debt Forecast 27.60% previous
•01:00 New Zealand Economic Forecast -23.358B previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•No significant events
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro rose on Thursday after the European Central Bank unveiled fresh stimulus measures broadly in line with expectations, while sterling fell after post-Brexit trade talks were extended to the weekend in hope of an elusive breakthrough.The ECB increased the overall size of its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme by 500 billion euros ($605.40 billion) to 1.85 trillion euros and extended the scheme by 9 months to March 2022, with the aim of keeping government and corporate borrowing costs at record lows. The euro, which was about 0.1% up against the dollar prior to the announcement, rose to 0.3% and reached a session high at $1.2161. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2161(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2200 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2097(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2058(50% fib).
GBP/USD: The pound extended its losses against the dollar on Thursday, as market participants became more cautious about the risk of a no-deal Brexit.The pound dropped late on Wednesday, after a dinner between UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen ended with both sides still “far apart”.The British currency has been jittery on Brexit headlines, dropping in response to news suggesting a deal is unlikely and rising when hopes are raised. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3323(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3440 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3288 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3154 (61.8 % fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened to a two-and-a-half-year high against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as oil climbed and the greenback broadly lost ground, while the domestic focus turned to an economic progress report from the Bank of Canada. Oil, one of Canada's major exports, was boosted by hopes that the release of COVID-19 vaccines would lead to a faster demand recovery. U.S. crude prices were up nearly 2% at $46.41 a barrel. The loonie was trading 0.4% higher at 1.2761 to the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2759 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2792 (61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2736 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2700 (Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the Japanese yen on Thursday after data showed an increase in U.S. initial jobless claims. The number of Americans filing first-time claims for jobless benefits jumped to a near three-month high last week as mounting new COVID-19 infections led to more business restrictions, further evidence that the pandemic and lack of additional fiscal stimulus were hurting the economy. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits surged 137,000 to seasonally adjusted 853,000 for the week ended Dec. 5, the highest since mid-September. The weekly increase was the largest since March, when the nation was battered by the first wave of coronavirus infections. Strong resistance can be seen at 104.40(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 104.68 (23.6% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 104.16 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 103.93 (61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
Euro zone stocks hit a two-week low on Thursday, with banks taking a knock after the European Central Bank forecast a slower rebound in growth next year even as it rolled out more stimulus measures to support the bloc’s pandemic-hit economy.
The UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.54 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.33 percent, and France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.05 percent.
Major averages closed on Thursday with a rebound from early lows as investors looked for signs of progress in fiscal stimulus talks to support the economy after labor market data showed a jump in jobless claims.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.23 percent, S&P 500 ended down by 0.13 percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.54 percent.
Treasuries Recap
Longer-dated Treasury yields were broadly lower on Thursday morning despite an increase in inflation, as consumer price index data raised expectations the Federal Reserve would increase Treasury purchases at the long end of the yield curve.
The benchmark 10-year yield rose after the data release at 8:30 a.m. ET, but remained lower on the day, last down half a basis point at 0.936%. The 30-year yield made a similar move and was last down 1.1 basis points on the day to 1.678%.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices climbed nearly 3% on Thursday, with Brent surging above $50 a barrel for the first time since early March, fueled by hopes of a faster demand recovery as countries start to roll out COVID-19 vaccines.
Brent crude rose $1.39, or 2.8%, to settle at $50.25 a barrel, gaining for a third day. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.26, or 2.8%, to settle at $46.78 a barrel.
Gold eased on Thursday as a failure to significantly breach the $1,850 per ounce resistance level prompted technical selling, with persistent overall vaccine-driven optimism also prompting investors to look past weak U.S. jobs data.
Spot gold fell 0.2% to $1,836.01 per ounce at 11:44 a.m. EST (1644 GMT). U.S. gold futures were up 0.1% at $1,839.90.
