Market Roundup
•Canada Jan Retail Sales (MoM) -0.3%,-0.4% forecast,0.9% previous
•Canada Jan Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.5%,-0.4% forecast,0.6% previous
•Canada Jan Budget Balance-2.10B, -4.47B previous
•Canada Jan Budget Balance (YoY) -25.70B,-23.61B previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 509,510 previous
• U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 624 ,629 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Friday as relatively strong U.S. economy and high interest rates kept dollar bid. The Fed left its overnight rate on hold between 5.25%-5.5% and stuck with projections for three cuts by year's end. But it also said it would not cut until it was confident that inflation was sustainably declining toward its 2% target. About 84 basis points of cuts are priced in for this year - much lower than the 160 or so at the start of the year - but higher than earlier in the week as rate cut bets gained steam. Traders now see a 71% chance of the first rate cut hitting in June, from 56% at the start of this week, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool. The dollar index , a measure of the U.S. currency against six major trading partners, rose 0.45%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0868(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0951 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0812(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0778 (Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound fell to its lowest so far this month on Friday, after data showed UK consumer spending stagnated in February and Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said rate cuts "were in play" this year. British retail sales stagnated in February after rising by a revised 3.6% January, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed on Friday.On Thursday, the BoE left interest rates unchanged, but in its statement, it suggested it was edging towards making a change to monetary policy.Furthermore, two members of the Monetary Policy Committee that had previously voted to raise rates instead voted to maintain them a decision many in the market had not expected. Sterling fell 0.6% to $1.2599, its lowest since March 1.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2673(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2729 (March 19th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2567(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2485(61.8%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against the broadly stronger U.S. counterpart on Friday, marking a weekly decline as retail sales data indicating an economic slowdown, further fueling expectations of interest rate cuts. Canadian retail sales declined 0.3% in January compared to December. Sales volume increased by 0.2%, compared to a previous projection of 0.1% growth in February. Money markets have raised bets on the BoC easing rates in June, seeing a roughly 70% chance, after data on Tuesday showed inflation cooling to an annual rate of 2.8%. The loonie was trading 0.6% lower at 1.3605 to the U.S. dollar, stopping just short of its weakest level in three months which it posted on Tuesday at 1.3613. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3601 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3636 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3518(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3452 (50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased against yen on Friday following the release of Japanese consumer inflation data. Japan's core inflation accelerated in February but an index gauging the broader price trend slowed sharply, data showed, highlighting uncertainty on how soon the central bank will hike interest rates again. The core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes fresh foods but includes energy items, rose 2.8% in February from a year earlier, government data showed, matching median market forecasts. BOJ Governor Ueda said on Tuesday the central bank could hike rates again if inflation overshoots expectations or upside risks to the price outlook heighten significantly.Strong resistance can be seen at 151.91 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.39(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 150.85(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 150.12(50%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares paused near record highs on Friday with British, German and Italian stocks outperforming regional peers following a slate of dovish cues from major central banks this week.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.61 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.18 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.34 percent.
Wall Street's main stock indexes struggled for direction on Friday, though they were on track for strong weekly gains as investors cheered the Federal Reserve's rate-easing stance.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.77% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.14 % percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.16% percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields dipped on Friday as traders renewed bets that the Federal Reserve would begin cutting interest rates in June, despite recent stronger-than-expected inflation reports.
Yields on benchmark 10-year notes fell to 4.215%, down 5.6 basis points (bps) from their close of 4.271% on Thursday. Yields had approached their February high of 4.354% on Monday.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell on Friday after grazing a record high in the previous session as the dollar firmed, but was set for a weekly gain after the U.S. Federal Reserve said it expected three rate cuts in 2024.
Spot gold was down 0.7% at $2,166.20 per ounce as of 1026 GMT. It was on track for a fourth weekly gain in five, up 0.5% so far. U.S. gold futures fell 0.8% to $2,168.
Oil prices slipped on Friday and were flat on the week as the possibility of a ceasefire in Gaza weakened crude benchmarks, while the war in Europe and shrinking U.S. rig count cushioned the fall.
Brent futures for May delivery settled at $85.43, losing 35 cents. U.S. crude settled at $80.63 a barrel, falling 44 cents. Both benchmarks logged less a than 1% change on the week.
