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Adrian Beaumont

I am a PhD student at the University of Melbourne’s Department of Mathematics and Statistics. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. In the lead-up to the Australian Federal election, I will be writing a post every week about the latest polls and what they mean for the number of seats that will be won by each party in the 150-member Australian House of Representatives.

US Election Series

US under Trump Series

US election final results: how Trump won

Dec 17, 2016 15:00 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

At the US election held on 8 November, Donald Trump won the Electoral College by 306 Electoral Votes (EVs), to 232 EVs for Hillary Clinton. While this seems a convincing victory, Trump won four states by 1.2% or less:...

Briferendum Series

Coalition likely to win following Brexit

Jun 28, 2016 20:49 pm UTC| Politics Insights & Views

The UKs vote to leave the European Union (Brexit) was known by the afternoon of the 24 June Melbourne time. The ReachTEL and Galaxy polls in the table were both taken entirely before the Brexit result was known. The one...

US Election Series

Clinton clinches Democratic nomination after big wins in New Jersey and California

Jun 08, 2016 11:38 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Hillary Clinton today clinched the Democratic Presidential nomination, following big wins in the two highest population states voting. She won New Jersey (126 pledged delegates) 63-37 and California (475) 56-43. She also...

UK elections: Labour wins London mayoralty, but otherwise mixed

May 13, 2016 09:50 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Elections were held in the UK last Thursday. At stake were the Scottish and Welsh assemblies, the Mayoralty of London and control of 124 English councils. Labours Sadiq Khan is the new Mayor of London, after defeating...

Election explainer: what are the opinion polls and how accurate are they?

May 12, 2016 00:17 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics Business

Many opinion polls will be published during the election campaign. Most use either live phone polling (calls made by a human), robopolling (computer calls) or an online panel (poll sample selected from a large database of...

US Election Series

Trump, Clinton crush opponents in northeast

Apr 27, 2016 22:40 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Today, Donald Trump won majorities of the vote across all five northeastern states that voted. He won 64% in Rhode Island, 61% in Delaware, 58% in Connecticut, 57% in Pennsylvania and 54% in Maryland. Prior to getting 60%...

US Election Series

Trump, Clinton have emphatic wins in New York

Apr 21, 2016 00:23 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Yesterday, Donald Trump won over 60% of the vote in his home state of New York. John Kasich was a very distant second with 25%, and Ted Cruz third with under 15%. Trumps massive vote majority gave him all 14 statewide...

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Economy

Gold Prices Rise as Oil Slump Eases Fed Rate Hike Fears

Gold prices climbed on Tuesday as a sharp decline in oil prices eased inflation concerns and reduced expectations for additional Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. A softer U.S. dollar and renewed hopes for diplomacy...

Oil Prices Rise as U.S.-Iran Talks Fuel Diplomacy Hopes

Oil prices moved higher in Asian trading on Tuesday, snapping a four-session losing streak as investors assessed the possibility of renewed U.S.-Iran talks during this weeks United Nations General Assembly in New York....

Vietnam, US Trade Deal Could Be Signed Soon, To Lam Says

Vietnam and the United States have made positive progress in negotiations toward a new trade agreement, with a deal potentially ready to be signed soon, Vietnamese leader To Lam said, according to a government statement...

Canada Unveils Bill to Fast-Track Major Resource Projects

Canada unveiled draft legislation on Monday aimed at accelerating approvals for major natural resource and infrastructure projects, as Prime Minister Mark Carney seeks to strengthen economic growth and reduce the countrys...

Yen Weakens as Dollar Gains on Widening US-Japan Rate Gap

The Japanese yen remained under pressure against a firm U.S. dollar on Tuesday as traders focused on the widening interest rate gap between Japan and other major economies following a hawkish shift among global central...

Politics

Macron, Trump Discuss Ukraine-Russia Energy Strike Moratorium

French President Emmanuel Macron said Monday that he discussed potential measures with U.S. President Donald Trump aimed at securing a moratorium on energy-related attacks between Ukraine and Russia, as diplomatic efforts...

Burnham Eyes UK Leadership Role in AI Ahead of Trump Meeting

British Prime Minister Andy Burnham will push for the UK to take a global leadership role in artificial intelligence on Tuesday as he makes his first major appearance on the international diplomatic stage at the United...

US Plans Two New Military Bases in Greenland Under Arctic Deal

The United States plans to expand its military presence in Greenland by reopening a Cold War-era base in the south and establishing operations at another site on the islands east coast, according to people familiar with a...

US, Denmark and Greenland Set to Sign Arctic Security Deal

Denmark, Greenland and the United States are set to sign a new Greenland security agreement on Tuesday that could expand the US military presence while placing broader Arctic security under NATO oversight. The signing is...

UK, Mauritius Seek Diego Garcia Base Deal

British Prime Minister Andy Burnham has pledged to work with Mauritius and the United States to resolve the dispute surrounding the strategically important Diego Garcia military base in the Indian Ocean. Burnham spoke with...

Science

Blue Origin New Glenn Explosion Could Delay Launch Operations Until 2028

Blue Origin is facing a significant setback after a dramatic explosion involving its New Glenn rocket severely damaged a launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida. According to NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, repairs to the...

Blue Origin New Glenn Rocket Explodes During Launch Pad Test, Delaying Space Ambitions

Blue Origin suffered a major setback after its uncrewed New Glenn rocket exploded during a launch pad test in Florida on Thursday, raising new challenges for Jeff Bezos space company as it competes with Elon Musks SpaceX...

SpaceX Delays Starship V3 Launch Ahead of Potential Record IPO

SpaceX on Thursday postponed the highly anticipated launch of its 12th Starship rocket test from Texas after technical issues interrupted the final countdown. The company now plans to attempt the Starship V3 launch again...

Trump Administration Releases New UFO Files and Apollo Mission Records

The U.S. Defense Department has released dozens of previously classified UFO-related files following an order from President Donald Trump, sparking renewed debate over unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) and government...

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

Technology

US Northeast Airports Resume Operations After Telecom Outage Disrupts Thousands of Flights

US airport operations across the Northeast began returning to normal on Monday after crews repaired telecommunications problems that had disrupted air traffic and contributed to thousands of flight delays and cancellations...

OpenAI Urges US-Led Global Standards for Frontier AI

OpenAI is calling for the United States to lead an international effort to establish technical standards for advanced artificial intelligence, as concerns grow over increasingly capable AI systems and the prospect of...

Meta Partners With Shopify to Bring Shop Pay Checkout to Muse AI

Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced a new partnership with Shopify aimed at bringing agentic shopping and checkout capabilities to Metas recently launched Muse artificial intelligence platform. Zuckerberg said...

SoftBank Launches $11 Billion Bond Sale to Fund OpenAI Investment

SoftBank Group Corp. has launched a major bond offering worth $10 billion and 1 billion to finance its latest investment in OpenAI, according to a term sheet released Monday. The Japanese technology investment group is...

Trump Plans Federal AI Force and AI Czar

U.S. President Donald Trump said Saturday that he plans to create a federal AI Force and appoint an artificial intelligence czar, outlining an effort to accelerate U.S. AI development while using existing laws to address...