I am a PhD student at the University of Melbourne’s Department of Mathematics and Statistics. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. In the lead-up to the Australian Federal election, I will be writing a post every week about the latest polls and what they mean for the number of seats that will be won by each party in the 150-member Australian House of Representatives.
US election final results: how Trump won
Dec 17, 2016 15:00 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics
At the US election held on 8 November, Donald Trump won the Electoral College by 306 Electoral Votes (EVs), to 232 EVs for Hillary Clinton. While this seems a convincing victory, Trump won four states by 1.2% or less:...
Coalition likely to win following Brexit
Jun 28, 2016 20:49 pm UTC| Politics Insights & Views
The UKs vote to leave the European Union (Brexit) was known by the afternoon of the 24 June Melbourne time. The ReachTEL and Galaxy polls in the table were both taken entirely before the Brexit result was known. The one...
Clinton clinches Democratic nomination after big wins in New Jersey and California
Jun 08, 2016 11:38 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics
Hillary Clinton today clinched the Democratic Presidential nomination, following big wins in the two highest population states voting. She won New Jersey (126 pledged delegates) 63-37 and California (475) 56-43. She also...
UK elections: Labour wins London mayoralty, but otherwise mixed
May 13, 2016 09:50 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics
Elections were held in the UK last Thursday. At stake were the Scottish and Welsh assemblies, the Mayoralty of London and control of 124 English councils. Labours Sadiq Khan is the new Mayor of London, after defeating...
Election explainer: what are the opinion polls and how accurate are they?
May 12, 2016 00:17 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics Business
Many opinion polls will be published during the election campaign. Most use either live phone polling (calls made by a human), robopolling (computer calls) or an online panel (poll sample selected from a large database of...
Trump, Clinton crush opponents in northeast
Apr 27, 2016 22:40 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics
Today, Donald Trump won majorities of the vote across all five northeastern states that voted. He won 64% in Rhode Island, 61% in Delaware, 58% in Connecticut, 57% in Pennsylvania and 54% in Maryland. Prior to getting 60%...
Trump, Clinton have emphatic wins in New York
Apr 21, 2016 00:23 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics
Yesterday, Donald Trump won over 60% of the vote in his home state of New York. John Kasich was a very distant second with 25%, and Ted Cruz third with under 15%. Trumps massive vote majority gave him all 14 statewide...
There’s an extra $1 billion on the table for NT schools. This could change lives if spent well