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Worrisome Signs Series: China’s trade balance

Today, Chinese trade balance data got published and it was a relatively weak one. Weak enough to spark concerns with regard to not just the Chinese economy but global economy as well.

Chinese trade balance came at $49.06 billion. Export/import growth figures are the ones that cause concern. Imports dropped on a yearly basis and by 1.4 percent. The figure is bad but still shows that the domestic demand is relatively healthy. On the other hand, exports declined by 7.3 percent on a yearly basis. The last time this figure was positive was back in March. In the past 24 months, this figure has positive four times only.

Moreover, the weakness in the exports come at a time, when the Chinese Yuan has been weakening at a relatively steady pace and at the weakest point in more than five years. The weaker yuan is supporting exports. And despite that the exports are weak, which points to the very weakness across the global economy. The yuan is currently trading at 6.78 per dollar.

Weak Chinese exports, coupled with steady slide in the yuan and the forex reserve that declined to the lowest level since early 2011 don’t look very encouraging.

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