When will Greece default? - Not tonight for sure

Credit rating agency S&P has cut Greece's rating from B- to CCC+, after the referendum and according to the agency, there are 50% chance that Greece might exit the Euro zone.

However, according to the rating agency Greece is unlikely to default even it misses IMF payment of € 1.5 billion tonight. As of latest communications, it seems very likely that Greece will miss the payment. IMF payment miss won't be a default since it is official sector, even IMF calls them arrears.

It will not be default even if Greece misses € 3.5 billion payment to European Central Bank (ECB) on July 20^th.

So the question naturally appears, what might trigger Greek default?

According to the definition from rating agencies, a payment miss towards commercial obligations would be considered as default.

• Greece's upcoming commercial debt payments include €2.0 billion in treasury bills due on July 10^th.
• €83 million on a Japanese yen obligation, due on July 14^th.
• €71 million in interest, due on July 17th on a three-year commercial bond the government issued in July 2014.

However, consequence of such default is not clear, since more than 80% of the debt is held by official sectors.