Wall Street Futures Steady After Record Highs; Eyes on Fed Cuts and Trump Tax Bill

U.S. stock futures remained mostly flat Monday night after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended the second quarter at record highs, supported by easing trade tensions and rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. The S&P 500 Futures dipped 0.1% to 6,250.0, Nasdaq 100 Futures held at 22,886.75, and Dow Jones Futures were stable at 44,379.0 by 20:03 ET.

Wall Street closed Q2 with strong gains, fueled by renewed hopes for a U.S.–China trade agreement ahead of President Donald Trump’s July 9 deadline. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each gained 0.5% Monday, while the Dow rose 0.6%. Optimism further improved after Canada withdrew its digital services tax on tech firms, clearing the way for revived trade talks with the U.S. President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney are expected to meet to finalize a trade deal by July 21.

Investor sentiment was also lifted by soft U.S. inflation data, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates. Markets are now pricing in a 90% chance of a rate cut in September, with a smaller possibility in July.

Meanwhile, attention has turned to the U.S. Senate as Republicans push to pass Trump’s sweeping tax and spending bill before the July 4 holiday. The bill, dubbed “One Big Beautiful Bill,” narrowly passed a procedural vote on Saturday and includes major tax cuts, spending changes, and border security funding. However, a new CBO estimate warns it could add $3.3 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade. The Senate version also proposes a $5 trillion debt ceiling hike, $1 trillion more than the House plan, raising concerns over potential default risks if no agreement is reached.