Upside risk likely for USD/CAD in weeks ahead

In Canada, October's RBC manufacturing PMI will be released today. This has declined over the past three months (last 48.6), and a weak reading this week would signal further trouble ahead. The labour market, in contrast, has been resilient, its strength highlighted by the central bank as one of the reasons to expect growth to pick up in the months ahead.

This perception will be assessed on Friday, when the labour market report is released. The market will be monitoring the change in full-time employment, as last month showed an unseasonal decline.

"With no major local price-movers, we expect the loonie to follow oil prices and the global USD trend. Our technical analyst sees seasonal signals pointing to downside risk for WTI crude and upside potential for USD/CAD in the weeks ahead", says Barclays.