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USD/TRY likely to stabilize at around 4.00 by late-2018, says Commerzbank

The USD/TRY currency pair is expected to stabilize at around 4.00 level by the end of this year, according to the latest research report from Commerzbank. The lira appeared to stabilize yesterday as the USD retreated ahead of the FoMC

The lira basket (half USD, half EUR) regained nearly a percent compared to its low of Monday. Nevertheless, this occurred against a background of worse geo-political newsflow: both the US and EU governments escalated their hawkish tones against Turkey's military capture of Afrin in Syria, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel calling the humanitarian situation there 'unacceptable' and the Pentagon warning that rival forces would be sucked into that area now.

"Given that the lira moved in the opposite direction, we could conveniently conclude that this Syria stuff does not matter. But just imagine what we would be saying now had the lira weakened by 1% yesterday for whatever reasons – we would very likely be attributing that entire move to the same military developments," the report added.

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December 14 15:00 UTC Released

USUS Retail Invty Ex Auto (R)

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0.7 %

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0.7 %

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USBusiness Inventories MM

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0.6 %

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0.6 %

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0.3 %

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January 22 19:00 UTC 469722469722m

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-1541 %

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January 22 19:00 UTC 469722469722m

ARTrade Balance

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-1541 %

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ARAnnual Primary Balance*

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2016 bln ARS

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January 31 00:00 UTC 457902457902m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

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2016 bln ARS

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Bln AR bln ARS

January 31 00:00 UTC 457902457902m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

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2016 bln ARS

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