US nonfarm payroll growth likely to be 200k

The ADP employment report for September showed private payroll growth of 200k on the month, slightly above consensus expectations and broadly in line with recent trends. The ADP estimate of August employment growth was revised to 186k, from the initial estimate of 190k. 

Goods-producing employers added 12k jobs in September, and service sector job growth was nearly unchanged at 188k. Payroll growth in the goods-producing sector was a touch weaker than in the past few months, as manufacturing employment declined modestly and construction added 34k jobs.

On the services side, trade, transportation and utilities job growth rose in September, and professional and business services job growth was nearly unchanged from August. Financial services added 15k to payrolls. 

"Overall, limited weight is placed on the ADP employment numbers, given their history of frequent revisions. Friday's official employment report from the Labor Department is a more reliable indicator of US labor markets. US nonfarm payroll growth of 200k is still expected and an unchanged unemployment rate of 5.1%", says Barclays.