U.S. Stock Futures Rise Amid Middle East Tensions and Fed Meeting Ahead

U.S. stock index futures climbed modestly Sunday evening as investors weighed escalating Middle East conflict and its ripple effects on global oil prices, while bracing for a pivotal Federal Reserve policy meeting later this week.

S&P 500 Futures edged up 0.4% to 6,709.50 points, Nasdaq 100 Futures gained 0.4% to 24,700.75, and Dow Jones Futures rose 0.3% to 47,031.0 points as of 8:10 PM ET.

The cautious optimism followed a rough week on Wall Street. The S&P 500 dropped 1.6%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 2%, and the Nasdaq Composite slid 1.3% — all pressured by soaring crude prices and heightened geopolitical risk.

Oil markets remained a central driver of investor anxiety. Brent crude surged past $105 per barrel while U.S. crude settled around $100, levels not seen in years. The price spike stemmed largely from Iran's restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint responsible for roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply. Attacks on tankers and regional energy infrastructure have intensified fears of prolonged supply disruptions. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, threatened additional strikes on Iran's key oil export hub at Kharg Island and signaled no immediate plans for a diplomatic resolution.

Analysts warned that sustained oil prices above $100 per barrel could accelerate inflation and dampen economic growth — a scenario that complicates the Federal Reserve's already delicate balancing act. The Fed's two-day policy meeting, scheduled for March 17–18, is widely expected to result in unchanged interest rates as policymakers monitor the economic fallout from rising energy costs. Investors will closely parse remarks from Fed officials for any signals regarding the timeline for potential rate cuts later in 2025, as persistent inflationary pressure from crude oil continues to cloud the outlook.