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US Payrolls,back to sustainable trend

 

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 223k in June, a bit below estimated expectation of 250k and in line with market consensus of a 230k rise. The shortfall relative expectation came mainly in goods producing sectors and the government sector. Goods sector payrolls rose by only 1k with construction payrolls flat and manufacturing payrolls up a modest 4k. expectations  were stronger with construction payroll growth given the rebound in the housing sector and the PMI data released this week pointed to stronger employment growth than realized.

Notwithstanding this softness, services sector payrolls expanded by 222k with broad-based strength from retail trade (33k), business services (64k), education and health (50k), and leisure and hospitality (22k). Temporary help payrolls, which are often a leading indicator of future hiring intentions, were up 20k. This is the fourth consecutive monthly increase in temporary help payrolls. Overall, It is believed growth to return to its sustainable trend rate of about 225k per month following the transitory boost to payrolls late last year from falling oil and the slowing in payroll growth earlier this year, says Barclays

 

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