Market Roundup
- Euro marks fresh 12-year low on divergent policy expectations.
-
Lagarde reiterates IMF global growth forecast of 3.5 percent in 2015, 3.7 percent in 2016.
- Italy's Central Banker: We can't keep euro zone interest rates at zero for an ultra-prolonged period of time.
- Greek FinMin Varoufakis: Greek liquidity problems insignificant.
- Greece will pay 580 mln euro tranche of IMF loan instalment due march 16 later on Monday.
- Swiss Producer/Import Prices -3.6 percent y/y in Feb vs -2.7 pct in previous month.
- Swiss Producer/Import Prices -1.4 percent m/m in Feb vs -0.6 pct in previous month.
- Swiss Retail Sales -0.3 percent y/y in Jan.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0830 EDT/1230 GMT) US Empire State Mfg Mar consensus +8.00, previous +7.78
- (0915 EDT/1315 GMT) US Industrial Production Feb consensus +0.2% m/m, previous +0.2%
- (0915 EDT/1315 GMT) US Factory Output Feb consensus +0.1% m/m, previous +0.2%
- (0915 EDT/1315 GMT) US Cap Utilization Feb consensus 79.5%, previous 79.4%
- (1000 EDT/1400 GMT) US NAHB Hse Consensus Index Mar consensus 56, previous 55
- (1600 EDT/2000 GMT) US Treasury International Capital flows Jan
Key Events Ahead
- No major macroeconomic events scheduled
FX Recap
EUR/USD slumped to fresh 12-year lows at 1.04685 levels and currently trades at 1.0535 levels. Investors stay cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes. It trimmed gains in Europe after a brief drop below the 1.05 handle. German stocks powered above 12,000 points for the first time.
On the topside, pair's resistance is located at 1.0553 levels, and then at 1.0600 levels. On the other hand, it is likely to find support at 1.0500 levels and further at 1.0460 levels. Option expiries at 1.0500 (981M), 1.0575 (370M), 1.0600 (1.3BLN), 1.0650 (462M).
USD/JPY is consolidating between 120.60 and 122.02 for the past four trading sessions. Overall trend is bullish as long as support 119.20 holds. On the downside minor support is around 121 and any break below will target 120.50 /119.90. The pair's minor resistance is around 122.20 and above that level it will reach 123/124.13. Option expiries at 120.50 (961M), 121.50 (485M).
AUD/USD hit the session's high at 0.7659 during late Asia, and subsequently consolidated at 0.7652, up 0.22%. On the downside, support is seen at 0.7558 levels. On the topside, the pair sees resistance at 0.7730 levels.
USD/CHF currently trades at 1.0040 levels. It is expected to find support at 1.0021 levels, and a break below could drag the pair to 0.9984 levels. To the upside, immediate resistance is located at 1.0104 levels, above which it could extend gains to 1.0150 levels. Option expiries at 1.000 (1BLN). EUR/CHF currently trades at 1.0580 levels. A break below 1.0411 levels would suggest that latest corrective rebounded has already ended at 1.0807 levels.
GBP/USD currently trades at 1.4781 levels and the overall trend remains bearish as the pair broke below the 1.48 mark. It is expected to be driven by the FOMC meeting due later in the week where the Fed is expected to drop its "patience" stance from the monetary policy statement. On the topside, pair sees immediate resistance at 1.48 levels, above which it could be pushed to 1.4850 levels. On the downside, support is located at 1.4735 levels and then at 1.4697 levels. EUR/GBP turned positive on Monday and is inching closer to the 0.7130 levels. The BoE meeting minutes and UK employment data is expected to drive the pair this week.
