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U.S. job growth likely picked up moderately in September, even as the unemployment rate hovered around a four-year high of 4.3%. The latest labor market data, expected Thursday, is set to confirm a continued slowdown driven by weak worker supply and softening demand. Economists note that despite some improvement, the broader trend still points to a cooling labor market in 2025.
The report’s release was delayed following the historic 43-day government shutdown, which forced the Bureau of Labor Statistics to cancel October’s employment update. Because the household survey was not conducted, October’s payroll numbers will instead be combined with the November report scheduled for December 16. Prior to the shutdown, the BLS estimated that job creation for the year through March was overstated by roughly 911,000 positions, emphasizing the sharp loss of hiring momentum.
Economists surveyed by Reuters expect nonfarm payrolls to increase by about 50,000 jobs in September—more than double August’s 22,000 gain. Many believe August’s weak number reflected seasonal distortions and anticipate an upward revision. Still, hiring remains far below levels seen in previous years.
A significant factor behind slowing employment growth is reduced immigration, which began declining in the final year of President Biden’s term and accelerated under the Trump administration. The smaller labor pool means the U.S. only needs between 30,000 and 50,000 new jobs monthly to keep pace with population growth—down sharply from the estimated 150,000 needed in 2024.
Artificial intelligence is also reshaping the workforce by reducing demand for entry-level workers, leaving many recent graduates struggling to find employment. Some experts attribute additional weakness to uncertainty created by the Trump administration’s trade policies, which critics say have discouraged business expansion and hiring.
Despite overall job gains, certain industries—especially small and mid-sized businesses—are shedding workers. Economists warn that the September data could influence the Federal Reserve’s December policy meeting, particularly if signs of labor deterioration continue. While the Fed remains cautious about cutting interest rates further, a notably weak report could sway future decisions.
