US Household employment fell unexpectedly

Employment in the household survey fell by 56k in June, the first such monthly decline since March 2014. The household survey is frequently volatile on a month-to-month basis. It is expected to be clearer in longer-term moving averages. The six-month moving average increase in household employment now stands at 216k, in line with the 208k reading in the establishment survey. the drop in household employment as indicative of a weakening in trend employment growth and, instead, look for household employment to track payroll growth in subsequent months. The unemployment rate declined by three-tenths to 5.3%.. The anomalous reading on household employment likely contributed to the sharp three-tenths decline in labor force participation to 62.6% on the month and the decline in the unemployment rate. Nevertheless, even if household employment rose in line with payroll employment, the participation rate would have declined by one-tenth, consistent with estimated outlook for a flat participation rate over the forecast horizon. The underemployment rate (U6) also fell three-tenths to 10.5% from 10.8% says Barclays