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US Dollar Holds Steady as Fed Rate Bets and Iran Tensions Drive Markets

US Dollar Holds Steady as Fed Rate Bets and Iran Tensions Drive Markets. Source: Image by Brett Hondow from Pixabay

The U.S. dollar traded largely flat on Tuesday as expectations for a dovish Federal Reserve offset concerns over rising oil prices, elevated Treasury yields and continued tensions between the United States and Iran.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, hovered around 99.66 after falling to a more than two-month low of 99.29 in the previous session.

U.S. Treasury markets remained a major focus. The 30-year Treasury yield briefly climbed to 5.335%, its highest level since June 2007, before retreating to around 5.284%. Despite softer U.S. consumer and producer inflation data, higher oil prices and heavy corporate bond issuance linked to artificial intelligence infrastructure have fueled concerns about inflation and debt supply.

Investors are now awaiting minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting for clues about the U.S. interest rate outlook. Three regional Fed presidents dissented from the decision to keep rates unchanged, increasing interest in whether policymakers could signal a more hawkish stance.

Oil prices also remained elevated amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran dispute over the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude briefly reached $92 per barrel before easing to about $91. Washington and Tehran continue to make competing claims over control of the strategic waterway, while Iran has denied that negotiations with the U.S. are underway.

In currency markets, the Japanese yen weakened further, pushing USD/JPY to around 159.61. The yen has surrendered roughly half the gains recorded after the joint U.S.-Japan currency intervention in late July and is again approaching the key 160 level.

The euro traded near $1.1576, while the British pound slipped to approximately $1.3535.

Meanwhile, the Indian rupee fell to a three-week low, with USD/INR rising to 95.839. Higher oil prices and foreign capital outflows have pressured the energy-importing economy despite repeated intervention by the Reserve Bank of India. The RBI has reportedly sold dollars for eight consecutive sessions and tightened access to a discounted foreign-currency deposit swap facility after inflows surpassed $50 billion.

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