UK retail sales likely to perform well in July

UK month on month and year on year retail sales ex auto fuels data for July to be released on 20th August. The underlying state of consumer demand is strong, supported by growth in real disposable income and firm consumer confidence. 

The country's retail sales ex auto fuels fell by 0.2% mom in June level. The main surveys (CBI and BRC) point to some small decline in the yoy rate of growth. Societe Generale estimates the level of sales to be unchanged which would reduce the yoy rate from 4.2% to 3.9% yoy.