Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed 
FxWirePro: Daily Commodity Tracker - 21st March, 2022 
The UK budget deficit path has been below that of the previous year for each of the first three months of the current fiscal year which started in April. However, even after three months the trends evident in the data are highly tentative. The good news has been the strength of income tax, national insurance contributions and VAT receipts which chimes with the momentum of economic activity.
Societe Generale says July is a key month for corporation tax receipts and there are two reasons why those might disappoint.
- First, oil and gas companies have performed badly so their profits, and thus tax payments, are likely to be weak.
- Second, the rate of corporation tax was cut to 20% from April, which should weaken overall corporation tax receipts.
Accordingly, the July data is expected to display only a modest improvement on a year earlier. The PSNBex should swing from a deficit of £9.3bn to a surplus of £1.1bn, an improvement of £1.2bn compared to the deficit of £0.1bn recorded in July last year, suggests SocGen. In the three months to June the improvement has averaged £2bn per month.
