Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize Hopes Dim as Experts Predict Humanitarian Winners

The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on Friday, with speculation swirling around potential recipients — though U.S. President Donald Trump’s months-long campaign for the honor is widely expected to fail. Trump, eager to join the ranks of laureates like Barack Obama, Jimmy Carter, Woodrow Wilson, and Theodore Roosevelt, has been vocal about his desire to secure the prestigious award during his presidency.

Despite Trump’s announcement this week of a ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza — part of his initiative to end the ongoing war — experts say it’s too late to influence the committee’s decision. Norwegian media outlet VG reported that the Nobel Committee made its choice earlier in the week, before the Gaza agreement.

Seasoned Nobel observers believe Trump’s candidacy conflicts with the values the committee upholds, pointing to his withdrawal from international agreements such as the Paris Climate Accord and the World Health Organization. His trade disputes with allies and perceived admiration for authoritarian leaders further weaken his case, historians say.

Analysts suggest the committee might instead honor humanitarian or media organizations that embody Alfred Nobel’s vision of peace and cooperation. Possible contenders include the Sudanese volunteer network Emergency Response Rooms, the United Nations’ agencies like UNICEF or UNHCR, or global aid organizations such as the Red Cross or Doctors Without Borders. Some also speculate the prize could recognize journalists, given the record number of reporters killed in conflict zones this year — many in Gaza — potentially favoring groups like Reporters Without Borders or the Committee to Protect Journalists.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee’s decision process is methodical and independent. Nominations close on January 31, with deliberations stretching across several months. Committee chair Joergen Watne Frydnes emphasized that, despite global attention, “the ideals underpinned by the Nobel Peace Prize remain the same.”