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South Korean exports are expected to increase for a 16th consecutive month in September, supported by strong semiconductor demand fueled by global artificial intelligence investment, according to a Reuters poll released Tuesday.
Exports from South Korea, Asia’s fourth-largest economy and a key indicator of global trade conditions, are forecast to surge 62.0% year over year in September. That would mark a slowdown from the 68.7% increase recorded in August, based on the median estimate of 18 economists.
Although the projected increase would be the weakest in four months, economists said the moderation largely reflects fewer working days rather than weakening overseas demand. September had 21.5 working days compared with 24 days a year earlier because the Chuseok holidays fell in September this year instead of October.
Trade data for the first 20 days of September highlighted continued export momentum. Shipments jumped 78.3% from a year earlier to a record level, while semiconductor exports soared 259.4%. On a working-day-adjusted basis, overall exports increased an average 89.8%.
NH Investment Securities economist An Ki-tae said the semiconductor export boom is expected to continue as AI hyperscalers maintain their investment expansion.
South Korean exports have been rising since June 2025, benefiting from booming global spending on AI infrastructure and advanced chips. Annual export growth has remained in double digits since December and reached 70.4% in June, its strongest pace in nearly 50 years.
The strong semiconductor outlook comes as some technology industry leaders call for slower AI development because of concerns surrounding the technology’s potential risks.
Meanwhile, South Korean imports are forecast to rise 21.5% year over year in September, slightly below August’s 22.4% increase.
Economists expect the country to post a record monthly trade surplus of $38.15 billion, up from $34.79 billion in August. South Korea is scheduled to release its official September trade figures on Thursday, October 1, at 9 a.m. local time, or 0000 GMT.
