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Oil Surge Pressures Global Stocks as U.S.-Iran Truce Hopes Fade

Oil Surge Pressures Global Stocks as U.S.-Iran Truce Hopes Fade. Source: Photo by wetpainthtx

Global stock markets traded mostly lower on Monday as rising oil prices and fading hopes for a quick U.S.-Iran truce intensified inflation concerns and pushed bond yields higher ahead of a busy week of economic data.

Oil prices climbed after U.S. President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said negotiations would continue this week, while Tehran has shown little indication it will soften its conditions.

Brent crude futures jumped 2.1% to $106.49 a barrel, extending their monthly gain to nearly 18%. U.S. crude rose 1.5% to $93.84. Limited refining capacity has also driven diesel prices to record highs, increasing concerns that elevated energy costs could feed into broader inflation and wages.

Those pressures have prompted central banks to tighten monetary policy. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to be the next focus when it meets Tuesday. Markets are pricing a 66% probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike in October, with about 90 basis points of tightening expected through late 2027.

Higher rate expectations continued to pressure bonds. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to around 5.52%, near its highest level since 2004, while two-year yields have climbed 55 basis points in September.

Asian equities weakened, with South Korean shares falling 2.4% and Chinese blue chips dropping 1.4%. MSCI's Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan declined 0.6%, while Japan's Nikkei was little changed. U.S. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures slipped 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively.

Investors are now awaiting U.S. inflation, GDP, manufacturing and employment figures. Friday's September payrolls report is expected to show 85,000 new jobs, with unemployment holding at 4.1%.

Strong economic data have supported the U.S. dollar, pushing the dollar index to a two-month high of 101.39. The euro slipped to $1.1380, while the dollar rose 0.3% against the yen to 157.73.

Gold fell 1.7% to $4,212 an ounce as surging Treasury yields reduced demand for the non-interest-bearing precious metal.

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