Singapore's Q1 2025 GDP Grows 3.9% Amid Global Trade Tensions

Singapore’s economy expanded by 3.9% year-over-year in Q1 2025, slightly surpassing the earlier government estimate of 3.8%, according to data released Thursday. However, on a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted basis, GDP contracted by 0.6%, an improvement from the previously projected 0.8% decline.

The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) maintained its 2025 GDP growth forecast at 0.0% to 2.0%, following a downward revision in April from the previous 1.0% to 3.0% range. The adjustment came in response to the U.S. government's announcement of sweeping global tariffs, which have since cast a shadow over global economic momentum.

Despite recent signs of easing geopolitical tensions and slightly improved external demand, the MTI warned that global economic uncertainty remains high, with downside risks dominating. Singapore, known for its open economy and status as a global trade hub, remains vulnerable to disruptions in global trade flows.

The U.S. has imposed a 10% baseline tariff on Singapore despite their free trade agreement and existing trade deficit, further heightening concerns of a potential recession. Singapore’s trade minister recently acknowledged the possibility of further downgrades to the country’s economic outlook, citing risks of job losses and a technical recession—defined as two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction.

Other Southeast Asian economies also face potential tariff hikes, with temporary 10% rates in place and more severe measures expected by July. Singapore is currently in talks with the U.S. to seek exemptions, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector, where new tariffs have been threatened but not yet enforced.

As global trade tensions evolve, Singapore’s economic resilience will be tested, especially given its heavy reliance on exports and shipping.