Safe-Haven Currencies Rise as Trump Tariffs Trigger Recession Fears

The Japanese yen and Swiss franc held near six-month highs on Tuesday, reflecting investor anxiety as recession fears grow in the wake of President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs. Financial markets remain jittery, with the U.S. dollar extending losses amid global trade tensions and the threat of a downturn.

After a volatile 24-hour period, the forex market calmed slightly in early Asian trading. The dollar saw modest gains against the yen and franc, but both safe-haven currencies stayed strong. The yen traded at 147.61 per dollar, close to Friday’s peak of 144.82, while the Swiss franc hovered at 0.858 per dollar—both near six-month highs.

Traditionally a safe-haven asset itself, the dollar is under pressure as concerns mount over the U.S. economy. Trump’s tariffs sparked a global trade war, with retaliatory moves from China and the EU triggering further uncertainty.

The euro gained 0.38% to $1.0944, and the British pound rose 0.3% to $1.2765, rebounding from recent lows. Meanwhile, the dollar index slipped 0.3% on Tuesday and has dropped 1% since the tariffs were announced.

Investors are increasingly betting on potential Federal Reserve rate cuts as early as May, expecting more monetary easing throughout the year. However, Fed officials remain cautious, pointing to persistent inflation. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee emphasized the need for concrete data before any policy moves.

Risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars weakened, with the Aussie holding at $0.59845—near a five-year low—and the kiwi down 0.2% at $0.5539.

Market volatility remains high, driven largely by the Trump administration’s trade policies. Analysts believe reversing those policies could quickly restore stability to global markets.