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Renminbi series - Chinese economy heads to recession in Dollar terms

According to latest data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), economy grew 6.8% from a year ago in fourth quarter. Though it below expectations of at least 6.9% but it is higher than 6.5% target to be maintained till 2020. Moreover, it is quite commendable for world's second largest economy with GDP more than $10 trillion.

However this 6.8% growth could be misleading and should be seen in a different context. Steady depreciation of Yuan might have played major role in that, because in Dollar terms, economy hardly grew and with more slowdown and depreciation of Yuan against Dollar, economy is just shy of recession in Dollar terms. In 2015, growth was just 1.4%.

Even during the pre-recession ear of 2008/09, China's economy grew more than 10%, which would mean almost 35% rise in Dollar terms.  But situation has changed drastically with rise of Dollar since 2011 and more so against Yuan since 2014.

As of today, Chinese Yuan is trading at 6.57 in onshore market, which means the currency has depreciated against Dollar close to 6% in last three months and almost 10% since 2014 low around 6 per Dollar.

We, at FxWirePro, strongly believe, current market calm could be temporary and China is likely to keep coming into focus through 2016 and increase volatility in financial market. Possibility is also high, China's debt bubble, which stands at almost 280% of GDP ad corporate debt, almost 220% of GDP, likely to burst.

Chart courtesy, Tom Orlik, Chief Asia Economist, Bloomberg.

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